You Do Realize...

You do realize that what JS is talking about in this clip is about to happen on a global scale.

Tim Geitner is headed to Europe to give them your $. Most people don't know or care...but this is sick stuff.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Global Bail Out

Capitalism is dead...and I am sad. Today, though you won't hear it on the evening news, Capitalism as we know it, or knew it, was dealt its final death blow.

The Central Banks of the U.S., Canada (who cares), the EU, and Japan...decided to print money together.

Value is dead. The game is now totally rigged. Any hope of an equal, free playing field, has been defiled.

Obama will be reelected. We will sink into either a Global Depression or Global hyperinflation.

The Obama era will mirror that of FDR.

Game over...Capitalism...loser. The cronies won.

Live your life...raise cash...enjoy the people you love.

Enjoy the moments...all of them.

John Carney Nails It

Some time ago, I posted an entry which explained why I thought we were facing a deflationary depression, and that the FED's actions would not cause inflation after the 2008 debt crisis, as many had argued. I had a sense then that the money the FED was creating was filling in giant debt holes, and therefore, since they were only replacing what was being lost, inflation would not be a threat.

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2009/11/inflation-vs-deflation-not-so-simple.html

Today I found a much better explanation of why neither Europe or the U.S. is facing inflation any time in the near future.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45476620

I have not posted much lately because there just has not been much to say. Nothing has changed. The Euro zone is on the verge of collapse and will enter a Great Recession of its own, if not an outright Depression.

We will be deeply affected by these events. Our large banks are very unhealthy and I fear cannot survive another financial shock.

I believe they will be "reorganized" by the government within the next two years.

Hang on for the ride.

Obama Is A Brilliant Politician

This is not a moral opinion, not an ethical judgement, just a factual observation.

The Super Committee failed...Obama won, and won big.

The Republicans have lost the most important poker game in history.

Obama gets his spending cuts, or lack thereof...and the Republicans get another S & P downgrade. Brilliant move. (Even though I disagree with him ideologically, I can not deny his mastery of the game).

The Republicans look like terrible, uncompromising true believers (in Grover Norquist) who will not balance the budget because the 1% might annoyed.

Apparently, they can't do math...Obama can.

Sad...but Obama has won this round.

GMCR Vindication

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2011/10/einhorn-sets-sights-on-green-mountain.html

Love the put options! Important content is about 5 min & 40 sec in...

Just so you know, I am not short everything...I own Sprint call options and am looking to buy Intel and Cisco on pullbacks.*
*Trade at your own risk!

Another Momentum Stock Bites The Dust

I own Opentable put options. Needless to say, its performance is proof that predicting the demise of "momentum" stocks is like taking candy from a baby. (Not that I would do that!)

In after hours trading, it is down over 10%, after a poor earnings report.

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/open

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45129906

I started buying put options in the name quite some time ago.

Why should you care? Usually, when momentum stocks start to fall apart, the S & P 500 is not far behind.

Einhorn Sets His Sights On Green Mountain Coffee

Thank you David Einhorn! I needed some extra cash!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2011/10/17/david-einhorn-drops-the-hammer-on-green-mountain-coffee/

Apparently, David saw the same thing I did going on at GMCR!

I am not sorry for saying I told you so, because had you listened, you could have made a lot of $.

Here is the proof that I told you so:

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/09/obvious-short.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2011/07/love-charts.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2011/06/too-much-money-chasing-returns.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2011/06/inflated-stocks.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2011/03/gmcr.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/12/qe2-working.html

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/09/gmcr.html

Anger At Wall Street

I knew it when TARP passed, that people would eventually figure out just how badly they had been screwed by the Government/Wall Street Alliance.

I knew that the banks would eventually pay for their moral failures, and pay dearly for taking Government handouts.

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2009/11/goldman-sachs-doing-gods-work.html

The picture above is not only disturbing, it is downright scary. To threaten violence instead of pursuing legal channels of prosecution is downright reprehensible.

However, I am not surprised. People are very angry, and we cannot misread this anger. The corrupt system we have now (Wall Street Lobbying Government for $ at the expense of the taxpayer) has got to be reformed.

Government's role in this mess must be addressed. The Government created the incentives for these firms to do wrong...and they did. The Government supported and encouraged and looked the other way in the face of market manipulation because they wanted Wall Street money for their campaigns. The average Americans are paying for these mistakes, and they shouldn't be.

Term limits, full disclosure of donations, contribution limits, and an end to financial firms lobbying privileges must be put in place...ASAP.

The Volcker rule must be reinstated immediately...before it is too late, before the anger takes over and it is too late to save REAL CAPITALISM.

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2008/12/this-is-not-capitalism.html

David Rosenberg Call

I am a fan of David Rosenberg, and here is a great article in the WSJ. Obviously, I agree with David.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/10/13/d-stands-for-deflation/

90% Think Economy Stinks...

They are correct, and most of them still blame Bush.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/news/economy/economy_poll/index.htm?iid=Lead&hpt=ibu_c2

This does not bode well for Republicans in the coming election.

Republicans MUST run to the center if they are to have any chance a year from now.

Run Giuliani, run!

Wall Street Protests

You see what happens when real Capitalism is sold out (bank bailouts).

You are not seeing this in the mainstream press, but when you lose your integrity (which our economic system has) you get attacked from all sides.

If we do not take a "balanced" approach to our fiscal problems, we are in big trouble.

What Obama Doesn't Get...And What He Does

Marx said religion was the opiate of the masses. (and in many times it has been)

Now I say: oversimplification is the opiate of the masses.

Obama is catering to the masses when he describes the "Buffet Tax":

Ok, that was the best clip I could find... I can't find the video of today's speech.

I will tell you this: I watched the speech, and ironically, Obama makes the same mistake so many Republicans are guilty if when discussing their opposition to ANY tax increases.

Obama seems to believe that the tax on capital gains (which is why Buffet pays a lower "rate" than his secretary) should be the same as tax on income, or earned salary and wages.

When Buffett says he pays a lower rate that his secretary, the primary reason is that most of his income comes from long-term capital gains (taxed currently @ 15%). I assume his secretary makes a pretty good salary, so is probably at least in the 28% bracket. This is the "unfairness" Obama and Buffet are talking about. If all of Buffett's income was in the form of wages, instead of capital gains, he would be taxed at the highest marginal rate...35%...which would, indeed be higher than his secretary.

So, to buy Obama and Buffett's reasoning, which is a pitch for a massive increase in the capital gains tax...you must believe that capital gains and income are the same thing...or that they at least have the same contribution to society.

This is not true. Investment, which drives capital gains income, involves more risk. It also provides the foundation for investment and growth in an economy...i.e. it is the seed of innovation...without it, there would be no wage income.

So, the question becomes...should we, as a society value capital investment over labor? Yes we should, and we could, if these were normal times...but they are not.

Wow...classic Capitalism vs. Socialism. Scary...battle of the classes coming...

So, what Obama doesn't get is that income from capital gains is taxed at a lower rate because our society has made a value judgement that since it involves more risk, and because the rest of the economy wouldn't grow without it, we should tax it at a lower rate than income.

Here is what he does get:

We are living in very hard times, our country is basically insolvent (without major tax increases combined with massive entitlement cuts).

If we cut entitlements, it will be political suicide and may spark revolution if we do not have offsetting tax increases on the rich. Furthermore, ideology aside, we simply cannot balance this budget without tax increases. The middle class is already squeezed, they can't pay any more...and the poor already pay nothing. 94 % of Americans are NOT in the highest tax bracket...the rich that Obama is targeting for revenue. Therefore, 94% of Americans are NOT RICH, by Obama's calculations. He is right.

Wall Street traders, Goldman Sachs liars and government favor seeking non-capitalistic blood suckers...fail to contribute their fair share to fix the problems they created at their own peril. The middle class simply has nothing left to give.

The poor and middle class will not stand for cuts in entitlements that are not matched by tax increases on the top 4%; whether their income is from wages, profits, or capital gains. They don't give a shit where the wealth came from...they just don't want to be screwed over anymore.

So, Wall Street...gig is up....

Next time, do better, and you might get better. Don't ask for bailouts...don't take on too much risk because the government told you to. If you want to be treated like Capitalists by the tax code, you have to be real Capitalists, not pro-government fascists, who reap profits off of excessive risk taking, but want bailouts upon failure, and a guaranteed government return on your assets.

If you were real Capitalists you may deserve the special capital gains rate...but for now...you don't.

Everything Is Relative And Timebound

Thank God 9/9/11, and the next few days proved safe. I still have a weird feeling, though, especially after the attacks in Afghanistan over the last few days.

Anyway, to the title...let's gain some perspective on our place in history.

The S & P 500 closed at 1106.40 on 9/6/2001.

Today, 9/13/2011, it closed at 1172.87.

Wow...it took 10 yrs to gain 67 points...approximately .6%/yr, less than 1% a year.

If I adjusted for inflation, the results would be pathetic. In fact, they would show a loss.

Let's take it back 20 yrs...

In 1991, the S & P was trading around 300 (yes...300). If you bought an index fund in 1991, and held it until now, you made approx. 391% over 21 years, or 19.55% per year. Of course, the number would be less if we adjust for inflation. But, spectacular, nonetheless.

This explains why the baby boomer generation has so much faith in the stock market. Gains are almost all they have known. They were in their 40's...their prime earning years, when the boom began... and there were lots of them. They didn't start seriously investing until about 1988, and over the next 20 years, they made money, for simply handing their money over to a smooth talking, chart producing broker with black hair and white teeth. (perhaps a nice suit)

They attributed this gain in wealth to their "smarts". In truth, most of them had no idea why the value of their investments was going up, they just took credit for it. We all want to believe we make the wave move, in truth we are just riders...riders on the storm.

This tells us what?

Everything reverts to the mean. We have just experienced a 20-25 yr bull cycle, driven by debt, population, central banks, demographics, and speculation.

It is over. We are sitting at the far right side of the right shoulder of the largest head and shoulders top in known history. (graph above)

The cyclical bull market is over.

It will take a while (perhaps 2-3yrs), but the DOW is headed toward 4,000. Raise cash so you can take advantage.

9/9/11

I have a weird feeling about tomorrow...maybe paranoid...but Fri, 9/9/11?

You don't have to be a numerologist to see the significance of that date.

In addition, I worry about Bin Laden retribution.

Also, tonight Homeland Security says there is increased chatter, and breaking news alerts are saying there are credible threats have been confirmed.

Hillary Clinton will ring the opening bell on Wall Street in the morning. I hope security is very, very good.

I have been having bad dreams...there is palpable stress in the air. Things feel...off. Don't tell me 9/11 didn't change us, it did, all of us.

Let's keep our eyes and ears open tomorrow...

Run Giuliani, Run...PLEASE!!

Pro-Choice...get out of the bedroom...free market (with a moral twist), rational.

He is my guy:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/17/giuliani-to-gop-stay-out-of-gay-marriage/

Roubini Not A Communist

Part of any good intellectual debate includes a critique and analysis of opposing points of view. This is what Roubini was doing in his latest interview, referenced in the link below. He was not stating his approval or support of Communism.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44147922/

Roubini is being labeled a communist for correctly pointing out that Capitalism appears to be collapsing under its own weight, just as Marx said it would.

Capitalism does appear to be collapsing, if you think what we have now is Capitalism. I don't.

As I have said in the past, ever since 1914, with the establishment of the Federal Reserve, we have not been living in a truly Capitalist society.

You can not, and do not have a free enterprise system when money, the very foundation of an economy, is controlled by central government planners.

The only way around this is to either return to the gold standard, or pass a constitutional amendment that requires central banks to adhere to a set of principles designed to mimic the gold standard. (which is more practical)

In a true Capitalistic society, government would not be allowed to subsidize ANY industry. Government would run only national security, basic infrastructure, and social and health services for the very poor, mentally unstable, orphaned and disabled; those who were unable, through no fault of their own, to care for themselves. The playing field would not be rigged by a group of lobbyists supporting men and women business people who would not make it in business without government support.

We do not have a free market, and have not, for a VERY long time. Even the Wall Street bankers and traders who claim to be Capitalists are not true Capitalists. They are speculators on government provided steroids who attribute their wealth and success to themselves, when in truth, they would be penniless (and their places taken by real, moral, value creating Capitalists) if Bernanke hadn't saved their asses by expropriating wealth from the taxpayer.

So, Roubini is right that the current system we are living under is on the verge of collapse, but he is wrong to say that it is Capitalism that is collapsing. What is collapsing is a debt hungry, leverage driven, drugged up, pseudo-capitalist-socialist-fascist hybrid monster; I can't even think of a good word to describe it.

And, no, he is not a Communist.

Know A Radical When You See One

There are people who want to take away your freedom and liberty...on both sides of the isle.

Lately the Republicans are scaring me the most. The religious rhetoric of the front runners is nothing short of disturbing.

Great Interview With Roubini

He addresses social issues and the impact of the current global economic decline on politics.

He is a very wise man.

Markets Sell Off

I have not said much about the recent market sell off. I have been too busy watching, and trading.

My very small real portfolio has nearly doubled in the last two weeks.

So much for QE2...

We may have some big bounces on the way down, but we will test the March 2009 lows, perhaps this fall.

Hopefully, the drastic budget cuts needed to keep our new, not so coveted AA+ rating will not produce the same thing as cuts are producing in London:

Less than 3% of Americans who file tax returns make $250,000 per year or more. 87.6% of tax filing households make $100,000 or less, with the highest percentage making $50,000 or less.

If our political and economic situation worsens, which it is poised to do, the rich will be in for a rocky ride.

Democrats will attack them as the cause of the double dip. They will call them greedy for not wanting to pay their "fair share". If the Republicans get to radical with their "no new revenues" pledge, they can kiss the White House goodbye.

Barack Obama is no amateur politician, he will play the class card if it is needed. The American public is becoming poorer, and angrier by the day.

Cash is king. Don't trust high yielding bonds of any kind now, they may be the last of the bubbles.

WOW!

This sell-off was even worse than I thought.

I covered most short positions today, except out of the $ puts on CAT, OPEN, and LULU.*

Now I am wishing maybe I wouldn't have. Futures are slumping and pointing to a bad day tomorrow.

Hopeful for a bounce to repurchase short ETF's on...

*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE...trade @ your own risk!

Stating The Obvious...

S & P was only stating the obvious, which is scary to many.

However, they are not the cause of our problems, they just have the guts to tell us what our problems are.

As I have said before, our nation has been in a state of collective denial ever since the Feds stepped in to try and stave off the inevitable (with QE1 & QE2)...

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/12/let-it-be.html

Whether we want this correction to happen or not, it will. Just like the tide.

Big Banks Don't Want Any More $

Please...don't' deposit so much cash...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44019510

We already have more than we need.

What does this say about loan demand? It says it is virtually non-existent. This is very deflationary, almost depression-like behavior.

Happy Birthday To My Girl

In honor of my daughters birthday...she'll get it...

Market Doesn't Like Debt Deal

The market didn't like the debt deal...because it doesn't include revenues, doesn't cut nearly enough spending (needed to be at least 5 trillion) to put us on a credible path to solvency, and basically, the fiasco proved to Wall Street that the good old Government DOES NOT HAVE ANY MORE $ TO BAIL THEM OUT!

So they are on their own now...and without free money from the FED...they can't make it.

Can you say?..."Double Crash"? Better learn how.

Voice Of Reason

Tea Party:

You better listen to McCain...

No Such Thing As A Risk-Free Asset

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk-free_interest_rate

What most people don't understand is that there is a MASSIVE re-pricing of risk under way.

The market is telling us that there is no such thing a a risk-free asset...it is now a mere illusion.

One goal of this blog is to explain to people who don't have degrees in Economics, Accounting, or Finance, what the hell is going on in the world of economics.

I fear I am unable to do this about the current debate in congress.

The only thing I can tell you is that U.S. Treasury Bonds represent what has been considered the only risk-free asset in the world. That era is over.

Everything is changing. The financial world as we know it will never be the same.

Lock in every interest rate you can. If you have any variable loans or credit..pay it off...immediately if possible.

The era of government miss-priced risk is over.

I am not sure what will evolve, I only know everything is about to change.

Our Government tried to "save" the economy by capitalizing profits and socializing losses. This may have worked had we entered a period of growth where tax receipts could keep up with the increased liabilities Government took on.

The hoped for growth did not materialize...and now the Government is Lehman Brothers, unless we have a massive tax increase on the rich combined with radical cuts in entitlements, either of which may cause political instability.

I have disagreed with Dick Bove in the past, but now he is right on:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43915240

Time For A Middle Class Revolt?

I am absolutely amazed at even the implication that the middle class should pay for any more of this Government/Wall Street/pseudo-capitalism caused mess we are in.

Honestly, proposals like this make me want to run for office. Who is speaking up for the middle?

We are not loud enough! The poor get their entitlements, the rich get their tax breaks, and the middle gets...well, I will let you fill in the blank.

If the mortgage interest deduction gets repealed, I am running for office.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43882179

Is Moral Capitalism Dead?

I must re-post this...partly because I am short on time, but also because I want you to imbibe timeless wisdom:

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2008/12/this-is-not-capitalism.html

Seriously CNN?

I am sitting here, doing homework for an auditing class I must take in order to be able to sit for the CPA exam and I thought I would take a quick break and check the news.

What an ignorant mistake!

CNN, instead of focusing on the debt ceiling debate in D.C., which may be the most important economic news in the last 100 years, was interviewing a woman with "the world's longest" (and most disgusting in my opinion)...here it comes... fingernails.

Seriously? Is this what the American people want to hear about?

On the other channel (FOX), they were talking about Casey Anthony's scheduled release for Monday.

Unbelievably...unintelligent, ignorant, and unimportant.

I hope this is not a sign we are going the way of Rome...but fear it may be.

Love The Charts

If you can't see the pattern I am sorry for you. DJIA since 1900(above) GMCR, PCLN & NFLX ...

I know...I am a huge geek. When I see charts like this I get giddy...I mean it is so obvious...

How Are Assets Valued?

From Wikipedia:

Valuation of financial assets is done using one or more of these types of models:

1. Absolute value models that determine the present value of an asset's expected future cash flows. These kinds of models take two general forms: multi-period models such as discounted cash flow models or single-period models such as the Gordon model. These models rely on mathematics rather than price observation.
2. Relative value models determine value based on the observation of market prices of similar assets.
3. Option pricing models are used for certain types of financial assets (e.g., warrants, put options, call options, employee stock options, investments with embedded options such as a callable bond) and are a complex present value model. The most common option pricing models are the Black-Scholes-Merton models and lattice models.

I am going to add a fourth:

In fairy tale valuation land (U.S. Stock and Bond Markets), assets are currently valued by watching TV, and speculating about whether the FRB is going to keep buying up assets to artificially inflate demand. In fairy tale land, you don't but an asset because it has real value, or because you expect it to produce steady cash flows, you buy it because it is going up. Or, even better (worse in my opinion), you buy it because you have nothing else to do with your money

Right now Wall Street Traders are like an 8 year old at Target. "I already have that, but I want more." "But I brought $50, and I can't find anything I like." "So save it until you know what you want,"says mom. The 8 year old might listen to mom; Wall Street is not listening. They are just wasting their money on more plastic, valueless crap from China. In the end, their money will be gone (oh, wait, it already was, but their mommy, the government, gave them more) and they will be left with a pile of plastic crap. Except this time, mommy is broke.

Wall Street is dreaming...denial is abundant...many current valuations are unsustainable. Fairy tale valuation land might be a fun place to live, until it is not.

Out Of $

Wow, are we really out of $?

Looks like it...

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/12/debt.talks.republicans/index.html?hpt=hp_t1n

Think on that...

Don't Underestimate Risk

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is underestimating risk.

Over and over again we have seen it happen.

Commercial real estate in the 80's, junk bonds, tech bubble, commodities bubbles, China in the summer of 2007, housing market, etc.

Now it is sovereign debt, that is government bonds, of almost all of Europe, an unfortunately the U.S.

I have a sense that risk is terribly under priced in just about every class of bonds at the current moment.* Corporate, municipals, treasuries, etc.

The government has been holding interest rates artificially low for a very long time...too long. This has caused a massive miss pricing of what I call "debt risk", or the risk that the borrower will simply borrow too much, and, regardless of the interest rate, will be unable to repay what he owes. Governments, corporations, and individuals all over the world are in this position.

Think of the government holding interest rates artificially low (causing a miss pricing of risk) as a force. We know from physics that for every force, there is a counter force. Massive defaults are the counter force. They will happen, just as everything that goes up eventually comes down, defaults are the inevitable consequence of too much borrowing.

Please read the following if you are interested at better understanding of how quickly risk can be repriced, and what affect this might have on your investments:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-debt-limit-deal-your-investments-plummet-2011-07-12

Don't underestimate risk.

*None of the commentary on this website is "investment advice", but mere intellectual discussion. Any positions you take are 100% your own responsibility. As always, trade and invest at your own risk.

Timeless Wisdom

Happy Fourth of July!

This was posted by Marc Cenedella in an email from theladders.com, but I love it, and want to share it all with you.

It reminds us to live fully and fearlessly, to strive to better ourselves even when we come up short.

So don’t live life on the sidelines…get out and live it!

“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly; so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat.”

-Teddy Roosevelt

Zero Equity Exposure

For the next few months at least...that is what this guy is saying:

Very, Very Important Information

I told you all that liquidity was in the stock market...or, you could call it inflation.

Apparently, the latest scheme is to buy your own stock to drive the price up...no conflict of interest there...no incentive problems at all...yup.

This article is a must read if you want to understand the markets bounce off the March 2009 lows.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-story-behind-the-market-boom-2011-06-29

Man, this guy just answered a VERY important question: What was behind this latest stock market rally?

Turns out it was corporate America buying their own stock with borrowed money. (QE 1 & 2 hard at work - cheap govt $) This is fine if your stock isn't overvalued, but if it is (and insiders are not buying, so most of them see their own companies as overvalued!) you are SCREWED when the market corrects.

I had a hunch it was something like that, (because the fundamentals haven't changed & the market increase is not based on REAL growth) but this guy did the work, solved the puzzle, and has provided us all with free, valuable information-what a rare opportunity-take it!

Leverage increases risk, sometimes exponentially. This means the current risk in the stock market is HUGE.

Beware.

Wall Street In Complete Denial

I am amazed as I watch the events in Greece unfold and listen to one talking head after another say how it doesn't matter. They simply cannot accept the fact that economic growth bought with government debt IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.

Greece is going to default. The economic ramifications for Europe are massive.

The U.S. stock market will be affected.

The Wall Street banks simply don't want to believe it because if they do believe it, their solvency, once again, becomes questionable.

Where have we heard this before?

http://youtu.be/Z0YTY5TWtmU

Market Up = Nonsensical

When markets are totally irrational...

I short them. (And that doesn't mean you should)

Too Much Money Chasing Returns

Chasing returns is not the same thing as investing. People who chase returns ignore risk...until they can't.

That is what is happening today in the market. Industrials, financials and commodities are down, but the high PE retail stocks like LULU, GMCR, etc. are rallying on the theory that consumers will spend all that $ they are not spending on gas on athletic gear and coffee machines!

This is totally irrational, and will have an ugly end.

Wall Street is desperate to find a place to put all that money we gave them, and they are making terrible investment decisions as a result.

This can only end badly...

Inflated Stocks

Inflation hasn't taken off like many have predicted. Why?

Where did all that money injected into the banks by the FRB go?

I think it went into the stock market.

I have a hunch that the big Wall Street banks just poured all that money into the stock market.

Into stocks like GMCR, CMG, LULU, ODP, SHLD, OPEN, WFM, NFLX, and PCLN. Take a bit of time to look at their 5-yr charts and P/E ratios and ask yourself if their valuations make any sense at all.

These are all overvalued stocks with sky high P/E's that are not justifiable even if we are entering the biggest economic boom in history. (which we are not)

So what does this say about the stock market? It is totally, unjustifiably inflated at the moment.

There are different types of inflation:

One is demand driven. The price of a good rises dramatically (becomes inflated) because current demand far exceeds supply. This is not what is going on in the market, as it is being driven by institutional investors, many of whom are required to be invested in securities and can only have a limited amount of investor money in cash.

Another is a monetary phenomenon, when a currency is devalued (by governments), each dollar in your pocket is worth less, and it takes more of those dollars today than it did yesterday to purchase the some product.

I believe the stock market (and commodity market) is reflecting the second phenomenon. It is absorbing, if you will, the affects of currency devaluation (QE1 & 2). In addition, all that money that is sloshing around in the stock market is not being lent by the banks, but rather sitting on their balance sheets in the form of trading securities.

This is a VERY RISKY situation. If REAL economic growth does not pick up DRAMATICALLY, the stock market is going to crash again. This will cause the banks to become insolvent once again as eventually, they will have to mark their securities to market, which will be dramatically less than they are currently showing.

If economic stagnation continues or another recession ensues, the question isn't if this will happen, but when. We also should ask what the catalyst may be.

Greek Default

Economic Downturn

Rapidly Falling Real Estate Prices

Municipal and Local Government Defaults

War In The Middle East (involving Iran and Israel)

Just a heads up...

Overwhelmed In The Moment

One thing I try to do is to stay present it whatever task is before me, and do it, until it is done. Usually I succeed.

During the last two weeks or so, I have been a failing miserably at this practice.

I am having a difficult time just accepting what is.

All pain and emotional suffering is resistance to what is. Simple. True. The source of peace.

Resistance to the socks on the floor (thanks Byron Katie). Resistance to the cottonwood trees. (mess that they are) Resistance to multitasking. (necessary, ever-present component of the life I have created) Resistance to...well, just about everything lately.

I am stuck in a temporary state of resistance.

Today was a big day...first day of having the kids home from school for the summer. It crossed my mind that I have been trying to be all things to everybody.

I am a personal shopper, "stay at home" mom, entrepreneur (Full Circle Tax & Consulting), stock and options trader, yard keeper, housekeeper, accountant, pet caretaker, cook, activities coordinator, student, blogger and yes I am doing a miserable job at the wife, friend, confidant part at the moment (somethings got to give).

Oh, and trying to be a good sister and daughter too...perhaps not doing so well at that either...but well intentioned nonetheless.

Needless to say, I am overwhelmed. I am overwhelmed in this moment. Presence is the only thing that will save me. I am going to pray for it tonight. (and a winning lottery ticket so I can be a nanny, landscaper, housekeeper employer)

Am I just supposed to accept that I am overwhelmed? I suppose so...and go with it.

Here is a link to one of my favorite posts I wrote when I was in a great state of mind, perhaps it can hold you over:

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/12/let-it-be.html

Markets Falling

Like I said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576365881803679042.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Me...making $.

Ying,Yang Parenting

I realize I don't write a lot about the "mom" in Econmom. This is because this blog is somewhat of an escape from domesticity for me. You see, most of my life revolves around my children and household, which is a bit ironic for an economics major, MBA, small business owner, and stock trader.

But it is the path I chose. One day I was listening to Suze Orman on Oprah and something she said had a huge impact on me..."People first, then money."

People first, then money. Here has been my take: people first, peace second, then money.

I realize I have this luxury only because I was born in to a dual income upper middle class family that paid for my education. I realize I only have this privilege because my husband works very hard at a corporate job he is very good at, but doesn't exactly love. Well maybe he does love it some days, but even if he didn't, he would do it anyway, just so my kids could stay at home, with their mother, have lazy summers catching frogs and playing with friends.

So, we are lucky, we can get by on one income (okay, maybe one and a 1/4, I do contribute something financially.)

Just a few days ago, I had this amazing spiritual experience while jogging with my dog. I was on my third (and last) mile, and all of a sudden everything seemed brighter, sharper. I had the understanding that God was existence itself, and we are all part of Him/Her. The trees had a white light surrounding them (and no, I wasn't on drugs). I felt totally in love with life, but no fear of death simultaneously. This lasted about 10 minutes, until my mind became active again, and fear crept in. Visions of death overwhelmed me, and I felt as if good and evil were using me as their personal battle ground. The Ying and the Yang. Darkness and Light battling, or perhaps just existing together, in everything, in all of us at once.

So, how does this jive with the parenting piece? Well, that night I had terrible dreams all night. Tornadoes, terrorists, burglars, kidnappers...you name it, I had a dream about it. It was as if my Ego was afraid I had experienced life without it for a few minutes and was in desperate fear of its annihilation. So for the last two days it has been throwing everything it has at me; which can be a lot.

Low on energy and feeling depleted, I decided to give myself a rare gift today and lay on the couch watching Bloomberg news all day. (No soap operas or bon-bons for me, although perhaps I am missing something?)

Eventually, it was time to go get the kids, even though I wasn't fully rested ,I ran to the pet food outlet and did a bit of grocery shopping for dinner.

Upon arriving home, my son inquired as to whether he could have a friend over. "Of course," I said, thinking it might make my afternoon easier. His friend came over, then another, then another...our house seems a neighborhood magnet...am I too soft? A little Tiger Mom needed?

Anyway, it wasn't three minutes before they had made a fort upstairs out of my bed sheets. "Hey guys, " I said, "take it easy today...I am tired...I know I am usually really nice, but that could change quickly..."

So I went to the kitchen to catch up on the chores I had neglected while watching Bloomberg. The old pot roast needed to be thrown away. I usually don't put things like that down the disposal...and harp on my husband for doing so, but I was TIRED...so I did...and then the inevitable plug greeted me..and it wasn't long before I had grabbed the plunger from the basement and was plunging away when a great big fountain of old pot roast goo splashed me in the face.

F@@!, SH@!, GOD@!!!...piece of sh@! pot roast. (His friends were still here.)

All of a sudden I here a rustling in the lilies in the back yard...."Logan...where is the dog?" Oops, they accidentally left the gate open and the dog is in the scummy green petri dish of a pond that is our back yard. DAM!@!!

Face covered in old pot roast, I make my way outside to grab a disgusting canine. I scream at the top of my lungs for my son to get a towel and shampoo, and hosed the crap out of my dog, neighbors staring...

So, my 80% clean dog runs into house when friend opens door and ROLLS the rest of the pond scum off on my newly cleaned living room couch...SH*!

I want a Fu@@!!$ maid!!!!! I want a Fu@@!!$ nanny! I want a Fu@@!!$ gardener!

And I don't have any of those things, because I chose to be a "stay at home mom".

But I do have a lot more than any rich matriarch who outsources chores does...

My son came up to me (while I was hosing down the dog), golden hair shining in the sun and asked, "Can I help Mom? I'm sorry." And he did help.

"I Love You, mom." "You are the best."

The Ying and the Yang merged into One...and I thanked God for This Life...all of it.

It's About Time Obama

As I watch "The Piano", I am so happy that Obama finally came out in the right side of the Palestinian issue.

Either recognize Israel's 1967 borders, and its right to exist, or don't bother coming to the negotiating table.

Amen.

http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/may/22/Obama-Israel-mideast-palestinians/

You see... you cannot appease an enemy that denies your very existence...the breath that leaves your lungs...you must defeat him.

If someone tells you you have no right to live, to exist...then he forfeits his rights.

Israel cannot negotiate in good faith with an enemy that denies its right to exist.

I am proud of Obama's speech...it is about time he defended Israel.

More Reason Not To Buy The "CHINA" Story

Risk Off Trade Beginning

I rarely find views I concur with so precisely:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43040265
Janjuah cites the third quarter as the beginning of the next down draft...I think we are already seeing it as evidenced bu the recent sell off in oil, silver, and gold.

Keynes VS. Hayek

Here is a great video sent to me by one of my readers, who found it on
http://www.powerlineblog.com/:
Obviously, I take Hayek's side.

Spitzer? What Are You Doing?

My NEW RULE - Bill Maher style:

No woman wearing one of those should be taken seriously. Why? If she is stupid enough to wear that thing* in America, on TV, why the hell would I want to listen to her opinion?

Yeah - free speech- she can wear it-I can criticize it.


"I Speak For Myself" (her book),she says,except it is really hard to do that because this damn veil keeps gagging me every time I breath in or SPEAK! No you don't(speak for yourself , that is, or you wouldn't wear that thing), but you just sold a book, because I can't wait to rip apart your obviously flawed logic.

*I mean the Niqab, or whatever it is, not the beautiful necklace the other intelligent, moderate Muslim woman was wearing.

Pakistan Is Mad At US?

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pakistan-warns-US-India-against-covert-operations/articleshow/8168389.cms

Who cares.

Is this their logic: We did not know where Bin Laden was, and we were not sheltering the World's most wanted terrorist, but...but...you better not come in here and get any more of the bad guys we are harboring...or else!"

Or else what? You will willingly give up the $3.5 billion dollars a year in aid we give you to not hide terrorists?

Or else what? You will give more comfort to terrorists than you already do? Dare ya...

When I Lean Left...the Right Is In Trouble

I am NOT a Democrat. I believe in free markets, Capitalism (real capitalism, not the crony capitalism we have lived under for the lat 20+ yrs) and the constitution!

So, when I start to lean left, it means the right has started to lose its mind.

I mean really, Osama might not be dead? It is a grand conspiracy that Obama cooked up to fool us all and get our focus off of his LEGITIMATE birth certificate?

Are you kidding me?

Racist, irrational attacks will only re-elect Obama.

Get it together Republicans, and lets talk ECONOMY, BUDGET, ENTITLEMENTS, etc.

GET OFF THE CRAZY SH--!

Oh, by the way...the market is goin' down!*

:)*Not investment advice...trade @ your own risk.

In Your Face, Trump

Wow, doesn't Trump look stupid now? Obama got Bin Laden. Not so weak? Not so dumb either. Born in the USA.

Trump, your only way to save face is to apologize.

I am not even an Obama fan (based on his economic policies); imagine how this will energize them.

Unless something big happens, we now know who the next President will be.

Thank You Navy Seals

Thanks for my Freedom. Thanks for your courage. Thanks for your bravery. Thanks for your sacrifice. You are REAL HEROES, as were the 9/11 first responders. As are Bush and Obama. Thank You American Men, all of you good guys, for being who you are...

American Men Rule - (Including my husband, father, & wonderful son)

Most American men revere women, as they should, as America is Herself one. Yesterday our men (and women) done good!
There are still great men in this world...here is a cheesey 80's video for you American Heroes...enjoy!

Our Government Hard At Work

John Stewart is so awesome...

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/tue-april-26-2011-elizabeth-warren?xrs=share_copy

The Federal Reserve Is Destroying Our Economy

They have succeeded in creating a new bubbles, in the stock market & oil.

The price of oil is directly related to the weakness of our dollar. It is only going to get weaker.

The bursting of these bubbles (oil & stock market) will be even more painful and harmful to the economy than the bursting of the housing bubble was.

I think we may be nearing a top, in both oil and the DOW. This QE2 driven growth is totally unsustainable.

High gas prices are taking a huge bite out of an already weak consumer. The price of put options in speculative stocks (with p/e's over 40) has drastically increased this week. How do I know? Because the ones I was going to buy are now way to expensive for me to afford. Yet the overall market is hitting new post 2008 highs? Does this make any sense?

Actually, it does. Wall Street is getting ready to make money on the down side, after making enough on the upside.


Nothing has to do with value any more. What a shell game.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2008-crash-deja-vu-well-relive-it-and-soon-2011-04-26
The market makers get richer and richer, the US consumer gets poorer and poorer. The savings rate is destoyed by price fixing of the price of money itself. Savers are punished, speculators rewarded, and incentives are skewed to reward the bad guys.

This is what Government involvement does. I guess it is called "crony" capitalism, I prefer to call it "phony" capitalism.

What a joke.

Rebublican Party: Get It Together

I have said before that I am neither a Republican, nor a Democrat. If you must label me, think of me as an Independent Libertarian.

That said, since a Libertarian is not going to become President any time soon, if I want to vote in Presidential elections, I usually settle for which candidate I think will do the least damage to our country. (First, do no harm!)

I am always hopeful, though, that the Republicans will get their act together and drop the whole Christian extremism thing (the mingling of their religion and politics). I am also hopeful that the Democrats will drop the whole Socialist thing.

But today, it is the Republicans I am going to pick on.

Can you not come up with one credible, intelligent, charismatic leader to run for President? If not, why not?

I am hopeful that someone will emerge, but first, let's look at the current field:

(Warning: not all of the following thoughts will be complete sentences, but I am not running for President, so that is acceptable.)

Sarah Palin: I can't stand to listen to her whiny voice for more than 5 min, even if the occasional witty attack seeps through those lips.

Donald Trump: Great businessman. Perhaps effective on a pragmatic level. Would cause Islamic extremists to pee their robes (a plus), but an egomaniac nonetheless. He just doesn't seem like a very nice guy. I would like to see him bald, Daddy Warbucks style. That alone may win him the election.

Mitt Romney: Pro-Life conversion annoying, great hair though! Sounds like Mass. health reform is going well. Looks like used car salesman-definite minus. Is against stem cell research-another clue that religion has taken over his thinking. Separation of church and state is way too important to elect this man.

Mike Huckabee: Couldn't keep his religious views out of politics if it was personally requested by God. Supports civil rights, but opposes Gay marriage-can the two co-exist? Somewhat rational on the economy, but really likes Wal-Mart (says something about his style).

Rudy Guiliani: Cancer survivor, staunch anti-Islamist, pro-choice, in favor of extending same benefits to same-sex unions as traditional marriage (although doesn't go so far as to support Gay marriage, a mistake, in my opinion.) Is for reducing deficit through drastic spending cuts. Has survived very public shame in marriage failures, humbling him, humility is a necessary trait for any great leader. For free-markets. Handed the check back to Prince from Saudi Arabia after 9/11.

Run Rudy Run!

Newt Gingrich: Very smart guy, but owes Clinton an apology. You can't apply your moral code to everyone but yourself. A staunch supporter of "The Defense of Marriage" act, (anti-Gay marriage), who doesn't know which of his marriages to defend. His moral hypocrisy is really too bad, because on issues of foreign policy and economy, Newt is somewhat brilliant.

Michelle Bachman: Seriously?

Tim Pawlenty: Boring with a capital "B"...too religious. Can't win.

I am getting tired, but I guess Rudy is my choice. Wait, he's not running, nor would the Republican establishment ever support him.

John Stewart is always so funny:

Successful Bloggers

Would I call these those who make $?
Who knows?
I do not have all that much to say, today...until I do...and then, I will...

Finding Balance

I just don't have much to say this week (or maybe I will, once I start writing)... this could be the Mom part of Econmom. Perhaps I am just too busy again. I am in that place where it all seems like too much. I completed my first tax season on my own successfully. My new business is officially up and running. No small task, but very satisfying. I love working for myself. I am trying to get fit, and eat healthier. This has turned out to be a great undertaking, time wise that is. I love excercise, so that is no huge problem, but the time it takes seems to conflict with all the other responsibilities I have. Shopping, cooking, cleaning, helping with homework, tutoring (calculus-one more undertaking) caring for pets, blah, blah, blah. I also found out I have to take a summer class in auditing before I can sit for the CPA exam, so I have started the ball rolling on that. I try to be present in each task before me, and enjoy each one for what it is. This works well for most of the day, but when exhaustion sets in, or I am cleaning the cat box...presence is tougher to maintain. Then avoidance is what I crave. Anyway, I am not complaining, I just have not had much time to blog lately, which is understandable, I suppose. But then life is all about getting the most out of every moment, and I intend to do just that. How does one balance a spiritual quest with the cares of the daily world, with all its details begging for attention? I am trying, one moment at a time, like all the rest of you. So far the only solutions I have found have been non-resistance, love, patience, and presence. I certainly fall short in these areas often, but they are the only tools that seem to bring peace. Good luck to you all of you who strive for peace, truth, and balance!

Bears Give Up - Except This One

The financial news media says Bears are giving up...more reason for me to add to short positions*... http://www.cnbc.com/id/42459309 *not investment advice for you-trade at your own risk! http://www.cnbc.com/id/42429560

Still Short...

I am still short. I guess I am the most stubborn bear around. You see, our economy is very sick, and has been for a long time. It may not appear sick, because the symptoms have beem masked with painkillers. (Fed's money creation) However, the underlying disease reamains, and even if it gets the proper treatment, withdrawal will be painful. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/wall-streets-naked-swindle-20100405?print=true One other note: volume in this rally (since Japan sell off) has been absolutely anemic.

Palin

I just watched Sarah Palin on VanSusteren. I don't usually watch Fox, but I was curious.

I really want to say something positive, but I can't.

She just isn't that smart. Or perhaps she is just too nervous to be articulate. Yeah...that's it.

I mean, here she was, being thrown the softest of balls and she just sounded, well...shallow.

She should not be the poster woman for the Republicans. She is no Margaret Thatcher. Maybe it is the Alaskan accent, or the mispronunciations, or the...well, there just is no excuse.

Palin is not Presidential material. Come on people...do better.

Arab Appeasement?

Is it possible that our Lybian operation is just the beginning of a strategy of Arab appeasement?

Think about it...I am.

Know Your Enemy

It is not radical Christians...

Is Anyone Always Right?

I have said before that I am not a Republican. I am also not a Democrat. I am for free-markets, against both subsidies for corporations and government meddling too much in the private sector.

I am socially Liberal. I am for Gay Marriage and pro-choice.

On issues of foreign policy, I sometimes agree with the left, and sometimes the right.

I believe Islamic extremism and exploding public debt pose very grave threats to this country.

I think the Left is wrong on both subjects. Islamic extremism is alive and well in our country, and that cultural relativism is the cause of many evils. (I happen to think Beck is correct on these issues.)

The far right Christian evangelical bible literalists annoy me just as much as the socialist unions.

All that said, I guess if you must label me you could call me a conservative Libertarian. I am for Freedom and Capitalism if it is based in a moral code that respects human rights. I am a lover of Capitalism with a moral foundation that supports equality and the rights to life, liberty, and the PURSUIT of happiness (not the right to it - which is a ridiculous notion).

There is no "right" to health care, financial security, education, or to confiscate the wealth of producers so you can enjoy the same privileges as they do.

All that said, I have heard many people demonize Glenn Beck lately for his belief in end times, and that we may be entering them now. I agree that this belief is crazy. However, aren't there people all over the World who believe things just as crazy? I mean, the same people who criticize him so harshly might believe that Iran can be reasoned with, or that Jesus was born to a Virgin, or that there really was a literal Garden of Eden.

Don't we all believe in things that are a little crazy? I mean, is anyone always right about everything? And if they are wrong about some things, and right about others, does that mean you should attack and discredit them personally just because you happen to disagree with them?

I mean, can't you just say, "I disagree."? If I am wrong about one thing, does that mean you should never listen to anything I say?

Here is the deal with Glenn Beck; he has a some outrageous ideas, but he has some very good ones too. He is not trying to hurt anyone, or make everyone agree with him, or limit any one person's freedom.

As a matter of fact, he supports freedom. He doesn't think irreligious people are bad. He is just a recovered alcoholic who is very passionate in his beliefs, wrong though some of them are.

Comparing Wisconsin governor Scott Walker to Hitler is at least as crazy as believing in the rapture.

Left wing multiculturalists: know your enemy. It is not the Christian right in this country, who though different from you, supports your freedom and equality and believes in the constitution which ensures it.

And hey, you can't say I am defending them because I am one of them, I am not.

I am a New Age Gnostic Christian (my own definition). If you can't figure out what that means, do some reading.

Pay attention to the people who REALLY want to take away your rights, the Islamic extremists who are spreading their hateful ideology across the globe.

And no one is always right, that doesn't mean nothing they say has merit.

We Need Clarity, 2+2=4

Please watch:


Video streaming by Ustream

The Perils of "Consensus" Foreign Policy

Eight days ago:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704838804576196681609529882.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Twenty-eight minutes ago:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/arab-league-criticizes-libya-air-strikes-2011-03-20

Do we know and understand our enemies? Is our government so desperate to gain approval from the Arab world that we now let them influence our foreign policy decisions?

It sure seems that way.

What exactly is the Arab league?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League

What wikipedia won't tell you is that many in the Arab league have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Here is MB's English website:

http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=17065

Do we have any clue what we are getting ourselves in to?

Link To UpDown

I trade a virtual $1,000,000 portfolio on updown.com.

I am down, way down right now, over 30%. That said, I could be way up if we have a market correction. Either way, please don't use my "fake" portfolio as a trading guide.

I just want you to understand, that I use that "fake" account to try out strategies I might implement through put options in my own personal "real" portfolio.

It is in no way intended as a blueprint for what I think you should do.

What I do is basically short a bunch of stocks I believe to be overvalued at any given point in time. When the market is up, my fake portfolio tends to be down, way down.

Anyway, don't use it for investment advice...it is just my short experiment. The stocks I play with in it are either way overvalued (in my humble opinion) or they are double or triple short ETF's that I buy in particular sectors.

Anyway, my point is...I am going to keep the link for informational purposes, but please, don't use it to trade!

U.S., Britain, & France Launch Lybian Operation

I can't believe the U.S. is getting involved in Libya.

Is the U.N. now driving American foreign policy?

This is the same administration which slammed Bush for going into Iraq. Oh, no, Saddam never slaughtered his own people.

But, I guess if the U.N. is OK with the operation, that makes it a good idea.

We are sending our men into a civil war.

This makes no sense to me at all.

Obama has been almost silent on the issue except to say Qaddafi must go. Why him? Why not Saddam Hussein? Why not Yemen's leader, or Bahrain's for that matter? Aren't they killing their own people in the streets?

Are we even clear about who we are supporting?

Obama says we cannot stand by and watch the slaughter of the Lybian people.

What about Rwanda?

Do Americans even support this? Was congress consulted?

Oh, I guess the "international community" and the U.N. are more important, and if they say its OK, well, hell, let's do it!

Unbelievable.

GMCR

OK, in the short run I was wrong. Once again, I underestimated the craziness of speculators and the ability of markets to stay irrational for long periods of time.

http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1573163

However, this brings their PE to 78.1. Yeah, I am sure that is sustainable.

I am buying more puts, just with expiration's further out.

Bill Is Usually Correct

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41988321

American Hypocrisy

I just read an interesting blog:

http://www.zeropartypolitics.com/2011/02/bill-maher-using-lara-logan-sexual.html

The author was very critical of Bill Maher and his "bigotry"*.

It was interesting to me because the author is very intelligent. He is an Arab American man and was obviously deeply hurt when Bill Maher implied that Middle-Eastern Theocracies were not ready for Democracy because of their poor treatment of women. In addition, Maher said Americans treat women better than Arabs, which the above blogger took as a personal insult.

I, of course, agree with Maher. I think he spoke too generally, though, and wasn't clear enough about what he meant. I too saw Lara Logan's gang rape as evidence of Arab hatred of women, especially American or Jewish ones. Logan is neither an American or Jew, but apparently a chant of "Jew", "Jew", was yelled by her attackers during the rape.

Does this mean all Arab men hate women? Of course not. I would venture to guess most don't. I don't think that is what Bill meant.

Gang rapes occur all over the world, and that only the individuals who committed the crime should be admonished, not an entire culture. When an All-American football team commits gang rape, aren't there actions too, driven somewhat by culture? A culture that aggrandizes sports heroes and makes them feel above the law?

It is not crazy at all, or racist, to say Islamic culture has some "issues" with women. Just like Americans have "issues" with materialism and addiction to money and oil. Americans need to be willing to look in the mirror, but so do people living in Islamic Theocracies.

I am not so sure the revolutions in the Middle-East are a move away from Theocracy, but I hope the blogger above is correct that they are.

That said, I can see how Americans also treat women terribly. The debate over which culture treats women worse, seems ridiculous, as in many Middle-Eastern Theocracies the term "women's rights" is an oxymoron. In most Western Democracies, or in our case a Republic, equality of the sexes supported by the laws of the land. In this sense, Maher is correct, Western Democracies and Republics are morally superior to Middle-Eastern Theocracies in their support of women's rights.

Cultures, races, and religions don't commit sex crimes...people do. All humans carry within the ability to do good or do bad. I really do not believe Maher meant that all men of Arab or Middle Eastern descent treat women worse than all American men. I think he meant that the governments, laws, and cultures in the Middle East are more oppressive to women than the laws of Western Democracies. This would be true.

His dating comment was over- the- top and hurtful. I think he was in pain and grieving for his friend. We all say things we don't mean sometimes when we are hurting.

What exactly are racism and bigotry?

If I say, many Jews are wealthy, this may be true. If I say Jews love money, you might call me a bigot.

If I say, many Middle Eastern men treat women poorly, this may be true. If I say Arab men are misogynistic, I am making a generalization, and being unfair to all who are not.

What if we make a statement like: Americans are hypocrites. Well, as the above blogger points out, this is true if we are referring to our thirst for oil and our support of a brutal theocracy (Saudi Arabia). We are putting economic gain first, at the expense of supporting human rights.

But by that logic we should not trade with China at all. Their human rights abuses are horrendous.

It gets very complicated.

I think of racism not as noticing how a certain individual of some race behaves, but believing they behave a certain way BECAUSE of their race.

Or sexism as...that human being is unable to hold a job down BECAUSE she is a woman, and we all know that women aren't smart.

So, was Bill Maher just making an observation? One of: Women are treated worse in the Middle East than they are in the West.

Or, was he saying Middle Eastern men are predisposed to treating women badly because they come from the Middle East? Or more specifically, Arab men treat women badly BECAUSE they are Arab.

You can say, wow, most of the people in this poor neighborhood are black. That is an observation. If you say they are poor because they are black, and black people are lazy, that is racism. Ironically, many Liberals fall into this category. They don't even realize they are being racist.

The men that treat women badly are white, black, brown, etc. They don't treat women badly because of their race.

They treat women badly because they believe in ideas about women that are false. In the Middle East, oppression of females is supported by the laws of many of the governments.

In the West, many people still believe is misogynistic ideas, but the law punishes them if they act on them.

So is Bill Maher a bigot? I certainly don't think so. I don't think he cares what race, religion, or sex his friends are. I don't think he believes anyone is "bad" because of their race, religion, or sex. But he does express powerful opinions, his show is set up for this.

And I am sure, sooner or later he will say something to personally offend me, that's free speech. And maybe if I was the Arab American man he offended I would quit watching too...but hasn't he ever made a mistake, or a generalization about a group of people when he was in a fearful state of mind? We all makes mistakes, and I think Bill's is forgivable.

*One definition I found of "bigot" was: forming opinions without just cause. Another: intolerant of others positions and views. Another: prejudice against the views of others.