Taleb Was On "Surveillance" Today

What a strange Universe we live in. As soon as I finished the previous post, I realized Taleb was on Bloomberg TV. He was speaking with Tom Keene, host of "Surveillance". I cannot find the video yet, but when I do I will post it. It is so strange that even though I have never read any of his books, (I plan to read them all!) whenever I hear him speak I am amazed how much we think alike.

I know he has been highly criticized by the press for being arrogant, but I find him quite humble and the press quite stupid.

He is not arrogant. He seems to realize that his insights are nothing more than glimpses in to the nature of reality and tries to reflect this in his writing. He doesn't think he is "special", he is simply aware that he has learned to use his mind as a tool to pursue truth.

He also seems very aware of all human beings (including himself) problems with perception. We all see the world through our conditioned minds and in the framework or ideology we have adopted. This tends to cut us off from the "truth" and narrow our view of the world. We try to fit the world into our framework, rather than see it as it truly is.

I believe Einstein, Da Vinci, Jesus, Galileo, and many others before us were able to connect to these truths. Perhaps great men sometimes mistake their insights as their "own", but in reality, truth exists independently of perception, and finding it is like somewhat like surfing. The surfer doesn't make the wave, he just rides it. He knows he couldn't take the ride without the wave.

I believe great insight is like this. You don't own it, or possess it. It isn't "of you". You just tap into it. This is one reason I don't like to write when I am not feeling tapped in to the truth.

Anyway, it is strange that Taleb's insights feel so familiar to me. Perhaps I have tapped into some of the same truths he has, for no particular reason other than those truths exist out in the Universe. They are available to everyone.

I have been getting very beat up by the market lately, and feeling a little down about it. Reading a quote from one of Taleb's books (in a Bloomberg article by Mark Gilbert) made me feel a bit better about my positions:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aum_MAReDqI8&refer=home

The article was from 4/20/2007. The DOW was trading around 13,000 and all the pundits were screaming that "subprime" was contained.

My favorite line:

'"A thousand days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you to be wrong," writes Taleb. "I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places."'

I wonder if this journalist, Gilbert, changed his view of Taleb's writing as "arrogant" after Lehman collapsed?

Taleb Is At It Again

I am very fond of Taleb, and have referenced his interviews in the past. He seems to be a great thinker that has a genius-like ability to see the whole.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40716007

I agree with him. I may not use the word "evil", but he is correct that we are living in a world where both big business and big government are corrupt, and are to blame for many of societies ills.

I can't wait to read his books.

QE2 Working?

Is QE2 working? If its intended purpose was to drive up interest rates and create an unsustainable bubble in the stock market to induce the illusion of wealth, then, yes, it is.

I continue to look at this rally as unsustainable. As an investor and a trader I would avoid both stocks and bonds, and remain in cash until we see a major correction of 15% or more.

For traders willing to take on lots of risk, I would short the S&P, with an emphasis on financials.

I continue to accumulate out of the money put options with multiple expiration dates on GMCR, NFLX, CRM, and am looking into shorting CAT, LULU, PSUN, and CMG.

The largest head and shoulders top in history is still forming (above image)...almost complete. 11,500 on the DOW is the peak of the right shoulder. The DOW is at 11,488 as I write this. Be careful!