Life & The Greater Depression

Life has gotten in the way of my blogging this week. Tuesday I found out my husbands job may be in jeopardy. Both of my children missed school this week. First it was colds, then vomiting, then strep throat. Then I got sick, and had to figure out a way to keep life running. (It ended up being Motrin + lost of Grandma & Grandpa help)

I bet there are thousands of family's around this country that had a more difficult week than I did. I am sure of it. Many probably lost their jobs.

I just am thankful for the loving extended family I have. In times like these you realize how much those close to you really love you. Thanks Mom, Dad, Sis, In-Laws, and friends.

To my loved hubby: I didn't fall in love and marry you because of the kind of work you did, and if it changes, it won't change my reasons for loving you.

My work doing taxes for H & R Block has given me even more perspective on the economy than I already had. People are struggling. I bet 50% of the people I have helped are either newly unemployed or worried about losing their jobs. These are nice, good, hardworking people. They are struggling just to stay afloat.

I count my blessings tonight. These are hard times. But I know they are not nearly as hard for me as many others.

Hang in there!

Good Technical Analysis

This guy is a very good technical analyst. His findings are consistent with my thesis that we are in a depression and point to another big fall in the DOW before we make a base and move
higher.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28985914

When this happens, it will finally be time to buy stocks again. It will be very tough, because everyone will feel like the world is ending and will be thinking you are crazy to buy stocks. However, I don't believe index investing will be wise at this point. The best strategy will be to construct a diversified portfolio of "best of breed" individual stocks. We are in a Darwinian situation here where only the strong are going to survive this.

My plan is to save up as much cash as possible and start building my "best of breed" diversified portfolio after the next big fall. No lattes, no trips to Hawaii, no fancy dinners out! How do you find "best of breed" stocks? They need to have LOTS of cash on their balance sheet, little debt, good name recognition, and ideally they will not have experienced massive growth during the credit bubble expansion era we are just exiting.

This troubling time is scary, but it will present massive opportunities. Just get yourself ready to take advantage of them when they present themselves.

Finally!

The business news media is just now starting to pick up on the nature of this depression. (I call it a depression, because a depression is a period of rapidly falling GDP combined with both asset price deflation and general price deflation, and this is what we are experiencing.)

Erin Burnett, of CNBC, asked a guest what good the stimulus would do if it had no effect on consumer demand. She went on to ask what good corporate tax cuts would do if demand for the products these corporations create does not pick up. WAY TO GO ERIN! Someone is finally asking the right questions!

See, the government can attempt to inflate the supply of credit (pour $ into failing banks) until the end of time and they will only create more bad banks! If there is no demand for loans, banks can't, AND SHOULDN'T, increase lending.

The demand for credit, and just about everything else in this economy, has fallen off a cliff. We have an oversupply of just about everything consumable. The result: falling prices.

Government, GET OUT OF THE WAY! Let the market correct this problem and find its equilibrium! LET IT BE!