I am a bit embarrassed that I just now realized Sleeper Cell is four years old! I do not get much time to watch TV, obviously. Perhaps this is a very good thing.
I just finished the second season on DVD. It was not nearly as well done as the first. However, I still could appreciate much of the acting and writing. The series was definitely thought provoking and Michael Ealy deserved any awards he won. But the main Al-Qaeda guy was, well fabulous. His name is Oded Fehr. I guess he is an Israeli. I am going to find out what else he has been in and watch it.
So, my Sleeper Cell obsession must come to an end. No more seasons to watch. No more were created.
One of the spiritual areas I am interested in is the idea of the ego (or self) vs. the Soul (or Self). The little self, or ego, is fully human, created in this world, fallible, sinful, and opposes the will of God.
The true Self, or soul as created by God (or the life force, or whatever you want to call it) is perfect. It does not sin. It is incapable of opposing the will of God. This is the consciousness within us that accepts what is and lives fully in the present moment. It is timeless, eternal, and true.
I have come to believe that the spiritual struggle of humans is to consciously align with God. Unconscious alignment with God, or the universe, would mean we just blindly accept what other humans have written about God. Conscious alignment with God, or the Life Force, would be a decision to turn away from the ego and surrender to God. It would ultimately mean overcoming our fear of death.
There is a part in Sleeper cell where the woman terrorist says that Americans are terrified of death, so that is why they will lose the War on Terror. The American woman replies that the Al-Qaeda woman is...."just a psychotic bitch with a death wish".
Some people try to overcome their fear of death by trying to control nature and others. Others (the Al-Qaeda ilk) embrace death, martyrdom, in an attempt to rise above the fear of death.
The true spiritual challenge is to embrace Life fully, in the present moment. The true challenge in to Love without becoming possessive so we are afraid we will lose out in the end. We are all mortal. The only choice is to live fully and be as present as possible while we are here, and then, when it is time, surrender to what is beyond.
Anyway, I will talk about this more later. Right now the demands of this world are calling.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Consumer Debt in America
I read a great article on today:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/136023-do-you-believe-borrowing-leads-to-prosperity-part-1
I completely agree with this guy. He makes fabulous use of charts and graphs to make his point. What he is talking about is the primary reason I believe this recession isn't even close to being over. Most of our country is obsessed with creating the illusion of wealth. (fueled by leverage)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/136023-do-you-believe-borrowing-leads-to-prosperity-part-1
I completely agree with this guy. He makes fabulous use of charts and graphs to make his point. What he is talking about is the primary reason I believe this recession isn't even close to being over. Most of our country is obsessed with creating the illusion of wealth. (fueled by leverage)
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
The Market
I must mention that my virtual trading account on http://www.updown.com/portfolio/ is doing terrible! I missed this bounce something terrible. It has been a big bounce too. Part of the reason I have not covered my shorts and changed my positions is because I still believe this is a bear market rally. I would have loved to have caught it, but I missed it.
Now, one trading mistake I have made in the past was not to trust myself enough. There were cases where if I would have stuck with my original short, even though I was being horribly squeezed, I would have come out way, way ahead. Perhaps I would have even won a few contests. However, I just did not have the risk appetite for it. This time, I am not going to make the same mistake. (could be a different one though)
You see, nothing fundamental has changed. I originally thought the market was way overvalued, at about 14,000 on the DOW because I thought our economy was being driven not so much by innovation, but by asset depletion. I was correct. Most of the "growth" in GDP over the last 15 years or so came from a massive increase in consumer spending. Most of the wealth that was used for extra consumption was extracted from assets (primarily residential housing) but also business assets. This made our "growth" look much higher that it actually was. What was really happening on a massive scale, behind the numbers, was asset depletion across the entire economy. This was clearly unsustainable. I have discussed this in more detail in previous posts.
What has changed? Well, the housing bubble has burst. Consumer debt levels, however, are still at record levels. The government has essentially nationalized the major car companies and banks. In doing this, they have nearly bankrupted themselves. If it were not for their power to extract wealth from producers and innovators through force, they would be insolvent.
What else has changed? Have incomes risen? No...they have fallen.
This "recovery" relies on consumers to take on new debt. The bounce in housing is primarily
because of the $8000 tax credit. (some of it is also due to falling prices) The government is desperate to start a new bubble. Unfortunately, in their attempts to revive the patient they are doing long term harm. It's like taking unsafe weight loss drugs instead of using exercise and proper diet to lose weight. You may look great temporarily, but your likely to drop dead of a heart attack. Are you really healthy? What happens when you stop taking the pills? Is you weight loss sustainable? It is not.
That is the position our economy is in today. It is not healthy. I am sure that underneath it all there is a strong resilient economy at the core. However, it is much smaller than the bubble economy were living in. Hopefully some bright young PhD at Harvard or MIT is looking in to that.
So.... I am still short the market (through SDS). I am short MasterCard. I am short Auto Zone. I am short Lowe's. Perhaps I will lose all my fake money. But I am sticking by these trades. I am also long a company called NXG. (Canadian gold and copper miner) This is with a very small amount of real money. (These are not recommendations, trade at your own risk.)
I know this is a very unpopular opinion, but I believe the market will not only retest its lows, but break through them by another 15-20%.
One trader's perspective:
Now, one trading mistake I have made in the past was not to trust myself enough. There were cases where if I would have stuck with my original short, even though I was being horribly squeezed, I would have come out way, way ahead. Perhaps I would have even won a few contests. However, I just did not have the risk appetite for it. This time, I am not going to make the same mistake. (could be a different one though)
You see, nothing fundamental has changed. I originally thought the market was way overvalued, at about 14,000 on the DOW because I thought our economy was being driven not so much by innovation, but by asset depletion. I was correct. Most of the "growth" in GDP over the last 15 years or so came from a massive increase in consumer spending. Most of the wealth that was used for extra consumption was extracted from assets (primarily residential housing) but also business assets. This made our "growth" look much higher that it actually was. What was really happening on a massive scale, behind the numbers, was asset depletion across the entire economy. This was clearly unsustainable. I have discussed this in more detail in previous posts.
What has changed? Well, the housing bubble has burst. Consumer debt levels, however, are still at record levels. The government has essentially nationalized the major car companies and banks. In doing this, they have nearly bankrupted themselves. If it were not for their power to extract wealth from producers and innovators through force, they would be insolvent.
What else has changed? Have incomes risen? No...they have fallen.
This "recovery" relies on consumers to take on new debt. The bounce in housing is primarily
because of the $8000 tax credit. (some of it is also due to falling prices) The government is desperate to start a new bubble. Unfortunately, in their attempts to revive the patient they are doing long term harm. It's like taking unsafe weight loss drugs instead of using exercise and proper diet to lose weight. You may look great temporarily, but your likely to drop dead of a heart attack. Are you really healthy? What happens when you stop taking the pills? Is you weight loss sustainable? It is not.
That is the position our economy is in today. It is not healthy. I am sure that underneath it all there is a strong resilient economy at the core. However, it is much smaller than the bubble economy were living in. Hopefully some bright young PhD at Harvard or MIT is looking in to that.
So.... I am still short the market (through SDS). I am short MasterCard. I am short Auto Zone. I am short Lowe's. Perhaps I will lose all my fake money. But I am sticking by these trades. I am also long a company called NXG. (Canadian gold and copper miner) This is with a very small amount of real money. (These are not recommendations, trade at your own risk.)
I know this is a very unpopular opinion, but I believe the market will not only retest its lows, but break through them by another 15-20%.
One trader's perspective:
Monday, May 4, 2009
Atheism Just A Necessary Step on the Path To God?
I wonder: does one have to renounce religion before one can "find God"? Does one have to first realize that organized religion is just a farce made by Man until we find our true path? The ONE path that unites us all?
I believe in God. I know that there is a Universal force that guides life and directs humans toward Love. You may call this force Allah, God, Yahweh, Buddah, The Force, etc. etc. The word we use "matters not", to quote a true master.
I have been distracted lately with spiritual matters. Internal ones.
I also have been fascinated by a Showtime show called, 'Sleeper Cell'. If you have Showtime, perhaps you have seen it. I know it is not new, but it is new to me.
There is a clip that shows the interchange between an Al-Qaeda cell leader and an American atheist who was raised by Christian extremists. I believe it is very telling.
The rest of the clip is unavailable by legal means. I highly recommend it. Any thoughts would be appreciated, as I think extremism only changes form, sort of like matter. Most of Western Civilization, thanks to our founding fathers and the constitution, has realized that spirituality is a matter for individuals, not the state. However, much of the globe still wants to impose their religious beliefs upon us using force.
Is it possible that Atheism is at its core just a rejection of human interpretation of God's word? Isn't this human interpretation inherently flawed? Is it possible that to find a true connection with God we first must relinquish many of the dogma's that we are faced with? Or at least question them? Of course, many original spititual texts point straight to God. I do not know the answers. These are just questions.
Any thoughts? Mine are that spirituality and religion are in general "good" for man. However, when they are hijacked by some men and used improperly to control and manipulate others they become extremely dangerous. I still believe salvation and peace are achieved one soul at a time. The sum of this will equal world peace some day. Until then, well.......................
I believe in God. I know that there is a Universal force that guides life and directs humans toward Love. You may call this force Allah, God, Yahweh, Buddah, The Force, etc. etc. The word we use "matters not", to quote a true master.
I have been distracted lately with spiritual matters. Internal ones.
I also have been fascinated by a Showtime show called, 'Sleeper Cell'. If you have Showtime, perhaps you have seen it. I know it is not new, but it is new to me.
There is a clip that shows the interchange between an Al-Qaeda cell leader and an American atheist who was raised by Christian extremists. I believe it is very telling.
The rest of the clip is unavailable by legal means. I highly recommend it. Any thoughts would be appreciated, as I think extremism only changes form, sort of like matter. Most of Western Civilization, thanks to our founding fathers and the constitution, has realized that spirituality is a matter for individuals, not the state. However, much of the globe still wants to impose their religious beliefs upon us using force.
Is it possible that Atheism is at its core just a rejection of human interpretation of God's word? Isn't this human interpretation inherently flawed? Is it possible that to find a true connection with God we first must relinquish many of the dogma's that we are faced with? Or at least question them? Of course, many original spititual texts point straight to God. I do not know the answers. These are just questions.
Any thoughts? Mine are that spirituality and religion are in general "good" for man. However, when they are hijacked by some men and used improperly to control and manipulate others they become extremely dangerous. I still believe salvation and peace are achieved one soul at a time. The sum of this will equal world peace some day. Until then, well.......................
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