Black Swan

I am in almost full agreement with this guy. Though he is a bit difficult to understand. I think I am going to get his book.

He is right on about the fact that too much debt can ruin and destabilize an economy. The governments solution has been to try to re-inflate asset prices. This will not fix the problem and return our economy to equilibrium.

In order to fix a problem you must identify what caused it in the first place. Encouraging consumers to take on more debt is exactly the wrong thing to do. It will only prolong the pain of the massive deleveraging that needs to take place in order for this economy to heal and get real. I still don't think hyperinflation is imminent. It will only happen if our government is forced to print money to meet its obligations. So far, this isn't the case. If the Chinese and the rest of the world start to dump our treasuries this could be a problem. However, where else are they going to invest? The U. S. still has the best chance to come out of this global recession first.

Tough truth is, I agree with him that we are only about half way through the crash.