Sunday, January 11, 2009

Where do jobs come from?

Ask yourself this question. Now stop and think for a minute. I had to.

What, or who creates jobs?

My answer:

Potential profit creates jobs. Innovation creates jobs. Entrepreneurs who are innovative and profit driven create jobs. There has to be economic value of some sort created. There has to be a demand for that value in order to produce profits. There has to be profits in order to "create" jobs.

Now, ask yourself another question: Can an entity that continually loses money create jobs? The "entity" I am referring to is the Federal Government. How has the Federal Government been at adding value? How have they done in the past at creating profits? The guy in charge, the new "decider" is Barack Obama. Apparently he has a magic value creating wand called congress. This wand magically takes money from the people who have done the best job at creating value in the past and gives it to new people who have never created anything. They will all of the sudden start creating value, and hence, we will have 4 million new jobs.

Obama is saying he will create 4 million new jobs. Last week it was 3 million. Today it is four million.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28590658

It is simply intellectually lazy to buy into this idea. Our economy is in the midst of a massive cycle that began in the mid eighties. When did the baby boomers really get serious about investing for retirement? When did the idea that stocks always go up really start to take hold?
My answer.... about 1984. At this point the oldest of the Boomers would have been about 38 and the youngest about 20.

I propose the idea that the stock markets great performance from the mid 1980's until last October, was driven by the Boomers. The huge debt bubble that was created by the Fed was created to counter the cyclical effect of the aging Boomers.

Where are we now? These people are either retired, and drawing on social security while living off of their investments, or they are they are rapidly approaching retirement. (Unless their 401k is worth 40% less than it was last year.) So the rich baby boomers are retired, and the poor ones are not going to leave the labor force any time soon.

Obama's plan can only work if the economy recovers enough in the mean time - independent of his actions - to make up for the huge deficit spending he is proposing. Don't forget that the government has to make money too (TAX REVENUE) - or it will go bankrupt. Someone..... please tell me where the growth is going to come from! And don't say from the new GREEN economy or I will puke! I am beginning to get very concerned that Obama's plan is going to bankrupt this country unless we all start popping out the next Baby Boom generation as fast as we can so that when the youngest Boomers finally retire there will be enough tax revenue to support them.

God help us.

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