I Don't Care If You Believe Me

When you speak what you believe to be the truth, it matters not if anyone disagrees, or if doubters abound. You speak what you believe to be the truth and if you are wrong, so be it. Agreement and acceptance are not required. You merely observe the world around you, report your findings, and be done with it.

When you say 2+2=4, you don't need someone else to verify your observation. You are merely reporting the facts as you see them, and though misperception abounds among us humans, we keep trying to percieve accurately because that is in our nature.

In a previous post, I said Peter Schiff was right, and he was.



http://www.kelowna.com/2009/09/18/u-s-economic-recovery-cant-work-peter-schiff/

So, as Peter says "Don't believe the propaganda!"

I am telling you - the Dow could run to 11,000 on pure irrationality and market manipulation.

If you want to, or you believe the propaganda, get in now! Or, better yet, try to be a trader if you aren't one. (obvious sarcasm)

If you don't, listen to Peter, he has been right all along. His logic is sound, and the market will correct.

The emperor has no clothes.

Right now deflation is the biggest threat to our economy. However, if the government keeps adding debt at the pace they are, hyperinflation will be. Actually, we will be facing hyperstagflation. (Inflation of the money supply with falling asset prices-most notably stocks and bonds and consumer goods-combined with dollar devaluation.)

The only way out is if consumers, small businesses and corporations massively deleverage and we start from scratch with a freer economy. This will require anemic GDP growth for some time.

From this new place of economic health (perhaps 15 years from now), we can move forward at a sustainable place and take to heart the lessons we learned by believing that GDP growth alone is the measure of societal abundance.

One can only hope.

You Are Not Your Thoughts

I am still getting hammered in the markets by irrational exuberance. Same pattern...nothing new to say. So I thought I would write about spiritual matters instead.

How often are we, as humans, unaware of our thoughts?

I have been fortunate enough to realize that I am not my thoughts. I have learned that thoughts are energy forms that pass through consciousness. They can be very overwhelming, and if your level of awareness is low, they begin to control your emotions. Instead of noticing the thoughts, we start to believe them, and our emotional state is affected, depending on the nature, frequency, and energy level of the thought.

Try a little experiment today. When you feel any negative emotion, such as stress, anxiety, or anger, ask yourself this question: What was I thinking about just prior to my change in mood?

You may find that you were thinking things like:

There isn't enough time.

There is never enough money.

I can't do that.

It's too late.

I am too old.

I am too fat.

My house is too dirty.

Now, try thinking some other thoughts. I don't care how hard it is.... just do it. Thoughts like:

There is enough.

I can do that!

There is enough time.

I feel great when I eat right and exercise.

Messes can be picked up.


How are you feeling now? It is only when you don't notice your thoughts, that negativity can take you over. (I am not saying you won't continue to have negative thoughts - just be aware of them) Negativity, as an energy form, can actually begin to feel comfortable if you start to believe in lack instead of abundance.

I am here to tell you all (and myself) this truth: The universe is abundant. It does provide. It can also take away. Don't ever underestimate the impact your thoughts have on the whole. We are all powerful creators.

What will you create today?

Jim Is Right

I couldn't agee more. We would have not had systemic collapse if the banks that had screwed up were allowed to fail. You just can't have it both ways and still call yourself a capitalist.

Re-leveraging simply gives more money to the incompetent and changes the rules of the game so that the competent don't want to play.

In order for us to heal we need honest capitalism, not a bunch of incompetent, corrupt bankers. Good ones can't take their place unless the government quits bailing out the bad ones.

Must Read

This post is a must read if you want to understand what is going on with our economy today:

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2009/09/has-central-bank-management-of-economy.html

Painful Keynesian Lesson

I am much more drawn to the teachings of Hayek and Von Mises than those of John Maynard Keynes.

However, our current government attempts to control our economy by implementing Keynesian principles, and has since the creation of the Federal Reserve system in 1913.

His famous quote that is becoming all too painful for me goes like this: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Another famous Keynesian quote: "There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world."

Now, if you are an trader, you understand exactly what I'm talking about. Timing is crucial.

If you are not a trader, you can stay safely in cash and avoid all this craziness for a while.

(Fortunately, there are ways to be short where you can stay solvent and stretch out your time horizon.)

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/08/how_to_stay_sol.html

If you missed this great rally by sitting mostly in cash, don't fret. At least you weren't short.

All that said, I am still net short this market through put options.

The fundamentals HAVE NOT changed. This run-up is driven by government over spending and bubble-like hopes that the worst is behind us. I am afraid it is not. We will break through the March lows, I obviously just don't know exactly when that will happen.

Don't forget what sparked the rally off the lows: the government suspending mark-to-market accounting for the large financial institutions. Instead of letting the market correct, the government basically stretched out the timeline banks had to disclose their bad assets. The hope being this would give them time to save themselves as the stimulus kicked in.

The problem with this logic is that there are many, many more losses to come. There are hundreds of billions of bad loans sitting on the books of the banks. Housing prices have not bottomed. There are millions of more foreclosures on the way.

I am not trying to be depressing, rather just interpreting the facts as I see tham and being as realistic as possible.

Market Still Higher

The market may be up this morning, but so is the VIX. Be careful, don't get sucked in to this suckers rally.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32729831

Does Spirituality Have To Be Liberal?

I was listening to NPR this morning. There was an episode of "Speaking of Faith" on about Yoga and the ways in which it can assist one on a spiritual journey. The woman being interviewed was a yogic master who preached self -responsibility for ones inner state. Her basic point was that if you can't defeat the demons within, you have no chance against those outside your Self. I couldn't agree more. The irony to me is that this true personal responsibility we all have to our Selves and humanity seems to contradict the Liberals who espouse it. Almost without exception they are Democrats who support increasing government control of the economy. This seems like a huge contradiction to me.

Now, the yoga lady in the broadcast never endorses a political view, but it obviously bugs Terri Gross that she is so focused on personal growth and suspends judgement about the ills of the world. You can find the podcast with a little work at:

http://speakingoffaith.publicradio.org/



What I find so interesting here is that the spiritual quest, in contrast to many religious ones seems to always be politically allied with Liberals.



Why? Is it because "religious Conservatives" and evangelical types like the Assembly of God people have taken over the right wing?



Where are the thinkers that believe passionately in freedom and personal responsibility? Are we really left with a right wing that thinks of God as a big white man handing out judgements from a chair in the sky and a left wing that wants government to grow big enough to take care of all the whiners of the world on the backs of the innovators?



A Left that wants to blame everyone, including the right for their own shortcomings?



Isn't there an alternative? Can't people who have the strength to go within and fight the darkness there embrace the idea that Government isn't a babysitter or a mommy?



This is a call for all those that have the courage to go within and heal their own demons to embrace a freer America. One that is more like the America our founding fathers envisioned.



Do not surrender your freedoms to a parent state. If you have the courage to look within, cut the Liberal bullshit.



Isn't it ironic that "Liberal" actual means free.



People; freedom, not just power, comes with great responsibility.



Step up.