Bulls vs. Bears

I remain steadfast in my belief that only experienced traders and 10-20 year investors should be in this market. It is crazy. There is a war going on between two different mindsets.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28244855 (I really like this technical analyst.)

The Bull Case: The worst is over. Housing is near a bottom. The Fed's drastic easing and throwing of money from helicopters will rescue the credit markets and consumers will start spending again. Goldman Sachs loss of $2.1 billion dollars in the fourth quarter was a good thing because it was better than expected. Obama can create millions of jobs. Stimulus checks will be used for consumption instead of debt reduction and the auto makers will survive and take us into a new green paradise where we will all get free health care from Sanjay Gupta while Anderson Cooper reads us a bedtime story about how Obama is going to save our PLANET IN PERIL. Charts show the market has bottomed. Keynesian economics has worked in the past and that means it will work again.

The Meanie Bear Case: The worst is yet to come. Housing has a long way to go - on the downside. Consumers are cash strapped, debt ridden, and losing their jobs. The Fed would only drop interest rates to near zero and throw money from helicopters if they knew something was seriously wrong with our economy. There is no demand for new credit, borrowers are over extended and need time to repair their balance sheets before they will borrow again. Because of this, no matter how low rates are, no matter how much government tells banks to lend TARP money, there simply are not enough credit worthy borrowers to lend to. You can not fix a market by propping up supply when there is no demand. Corporate profits will have a temporary bounce around Christmas and then fall back off a cliff. Charts show the market is very unhealthy and has much further to fall. Keynesian economics is dead.

It's like the shrink who shows two people the same black ink picture of blobs and they both come up with a different interpretation. One says its Jesus, the other Satan.

Who is right? Does our perception of the situation affect its outcome? Or does reality exist independent from observation? Or is it a little bit of both? (The Forrest Gump Theory)

Please, I am not saying there is a right or wrong answer. I would like your input and opinions.

By the way - I am still short.