Thursday, December 23, 2010
Sunday, December 19, 2010
No One Knows How Deep The Holes Are
"No one knows how deep the holes are."
Gov. Chris Christie may handle his stress by eating...but...who am I to judge...sometimes I do too, and I think he should run for President. He is willing to say the politically incorrect things that need to be said if our country is to avoid bankruptcy!
Sell most of your municipal bonds...keep only the ones in the upper midwest (with the exception of MN & WI) ND, SD, and Nebraska are your best bets.
You have heard it before... the financial pundits tell you there is no cause for concern.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| CNBC Financial Advice | ||||
| ||||
Whitney points out that muni's are held in "huge numbers" by the big banks.
You could listen to her, who put her life on the line to tell the truth...or you could listen to this guy...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704073804576023673176220648.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance
You make the choice...but be careful! No one knows how deep the holes are.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Taleb Was On "Surveillance" Today
What a strange Universe we live in. As soon as I finished the previous post, I realized Taleb was on Bloomberg TV. He was speaking with Tom Keene, host of "Surveillance". I cannot find the video yet, but when I do I will post it. It is so strange that even though I have never read any of his books, (I plan to read them all!) whenever I hear him speak I am amazed how much we think alike.
I know he has been highly criticized by the press for being arrogant, but I find him quite humble and the press quite stupid.
He is not arrogant. He seems to realize that his insights are nothing more than glimpses in to the nature of reality and tries to reflect this in his writing. He doesn't think he is "special", he is simply aware that he has learned to use his mind as a tool to pursue truth.
He also seems very aware of all human beings (including himself) problems with perception. We all see the world through our conditioned minds and in the framework or ideology we have adopted. This tends to cut us off from the "truth" and narrow our view of the world. We try to fit the world into our framework, rather than see it as it truly is.
I believe Einstein, Da Vinci, Jesus, Galileo, and many others before us were able to connect to these truths. Perhaps great men sometimes mistake their insights as their "own", but in reality, truth exists independently of perception, and finding it is like somewhat like surfing. The surfer doesn't make the wave, he just rides it. He knows he couldn't take the ride without the wave.
I believe great insight is like this. You don't own it, or possess it. It isn't "of you". You just tap into it. This is one reason I don't like to write when I am not feeling tapped in to the truth.
Anyway, it is strange that Taleb's insights feel so familiar to me. Perhaps I have tapped into some of the same truths he has, for no particular reason other than those truths exist out in the Universe. They are available to everyone.
I have been getting very beat up by the market lately, and feeling a little down about it. Reading a quote from one of Taleb's books (in a Bloomberg article by Mark Gilbert) made me feel a bit better about my positions:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aum_MAReDqI8&refer=home
The article was from 4/20/2007. The DOW was trading around 13,000 and all the pundits were screaming that "subprime" was contained.
My favorite line:
'"A thousand days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you to be wrong," writes Taleb. "I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places."'
I wonder if this journalist, Gilbert, changed his view of Taleb's writing as "arrogant" after Lehman collapsed?
I know he has been highly criticized by the press for being arrogant, but I find him quite humble and the press quite stupid.
He is not arrogant. He seems to realize that his insights are nothing more than glimpses in to the nature of reality and tries to reflect this in his writing. He doesn't think he is "special", he is simply aware that he has learned to use his mind as a tool to pursue truth.
He also seems very aware of all human beings (including himself) problems with perception. We all see the world through our conditioned minds and in the framework or ideology we have adopted. This tends to cut us off from the "truth" and narrow our view of the world. We try to fit the world into our framework, rather than see it as it truly is.
I believe Einstein, Da Vinci, Jesus, Galileo, and many others before us were able to connect to these truths. Perhaps great men sometimes mistake their insights as their "own", but in reality, truth exists independently of perception, and finding it is like somewhat like surfing. The surfer doesn't make the wave, he just rides it. He knows he couldn't take the ride without the wave.
I believe great insight is like this. You don't own it, or possess it. It isn't "of you". You just tap into it. This is one reason I don't like to write when I am not feeling tapped in to the truth.
Anyway, it is strange that Taleb's insights feel so familiar to me. Perhaps I have tapped into some of the same truths he has, for no particular reason other than those truths exist out in the Universe. They are available to everyone.
I have been getting very beat up by the market lately, and feeling a little down about it. Reading a quote from one of Taleb's books (in a Bloomberg article by Mark Gilbert) made me feel a bit better about my positions:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aum_MAReDqI8&refer=home
The article was from 4/20/2007. The DOW was trading around 13,000 and all the pundits were screaming that "subprime" was contained.
My favorite line:
'"A thousand days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you to be wrong," writes Taleb. "I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places."'
I wonder if this journalist, Gilbert, changed his view of Taleb's writing as "arrogant" after Lehman collapsed?
Taleb Is At It Again
I am very fond of Taleb, and have referenced his interviews in the past. He seems to be a great thinker that has a genius-like ability to see the whole.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40716007
I agree with him. I may not use the word "evil", but he is correct that we are living in a world where both big business and big government are corrupt, and are to blame for many of societies ills.
I can't wait to read his books.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40716007
I agree with him. I may not use the word "evil", but he is correct that we are living in a world where both big business and big government are corrupt, and are to blame for many of societies ills.
I can't wait to read his books.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
QE2 Working?
Is QE2 working? If its intended purpose was to drive up interest rates and create an unsustainable bubble in the stock market to induce the illusion of wealth, then, yes, it is.
I continue to look at this rally as unsustainable. As an investor and a trader I would avoid both stocks and bonds, and remain in cash until we see a major correction of 15% or more.
For traders willing to take on lots of risk, I would short the S&P, with an emphasis on financials.
I continue to accumulate out of the money put options with multiple expiration dates on GMCR, NFLX, CRM, and am looking into shorting CAT, LULU, PSUN, and CMG.
The largest head and shoulders top in history is still forming (above image)...almost complete. 11,500 on the DOW is the peak of the right shoulder. The DOW is at 11,488 as I write this. Be careful!
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Smooth Move Obama
Ironically, the Republicans may have just ensured Obama's re-election and made two terms a virtual certainty for him.
Arrogance knows no bounds, and the arrogance of politicians who win elections may be the worst kind.
Republicans: By extending the Bush tax cuts for everyone, you have spit in the face of average Americans. If we were not in a huge fiscal hole I would not say this. However, we are in a huge fiscal hole. The American people voted out incumbents because they didn't like the direction the country was moving in. They want Washington to show some fiscal responsibility. They want their children and grandchildren to grow up in a decent world. If the U.S. defaults on its obligations this will not be the case. To get out of the fiscal hole we are in we need compromise. Spending must be cut. The Bush tax cuts must be allowed to expire on those earning $250,000+.
Both things must happen. When Republicans start saying $250,000+ is hardship territory and even people with income of this magnitude are "struggling" in the midst of the worst Recession this country has seen since the Great Depression and at a time when our Government could be facing bankruptcy, they are asking for nothing short of a revolution.
You think the Tea party was angry? Keep it up, Republicans, and you will see how angry people can be. Tax breaks for the rich is not what the election was about.
So you see, Obama's move was brilliant. By giving the Republicans what they wanted, he can blame whatever happens now on them. In addition, when it is time for needed budget cuts, he can remind his constituents of how the Republicans were for extending tax cuts to the rich. And believe me, for 95% of Americans, $250,000+ per year is rich. If they are struggling it is because they over extended themselves, not because they didn't have enough income.
Arrogance knows no bounds, and the arrogance of politicians who win elections may be the worst kind.
Republicans: By extending the Bush tax cuts for everyone, you have spit in the face of average Americans. If we were not in a huge fiscal hole I would not say this. However, we are in a huge fiscal hole. The American people voted out incumbents because they didn't like the direction the country was moving in. They want Washington to show some fiscal responsibility. They want their children and grandchildren to grow up in a decent world. If the U.S. defaults on its obligations this will not be the case. To get out of the fiscal hole we are in we need compromise. Spending must be cut. The Bush tax cuts must be allowed to expire on those earning $250,000+.
Both things must happen. When Republicans start saying $250,000+ is hardship territory and even people with income of this magnitude are "struggling" in the midst of the worst Recession this country has seen since the Great Depression and at a time when our Government could be facing bankruptcy, they are asking for nothing short of a revolution.
You think the Tea party was angry? Keep it up, Republicans, and you will see how angry people can be. Tax breaks for the rich is not what the election was about.
So you see, Obama's move was brilliant. By giving the Republicans what they wanted, he can blame whatever happens now on them. In addition, when it is time for needed budget cuts, he can remind his constituents of how the Republicans were for extending tax cuts to the rich. And believe me, for 95% of Americans, $250,000+ per year is rich. If they are struggling it is because they over extended themselves, not because they didn't have enough income.
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