Let's put all of this in perspective:
If you have not watched this speech, you don't really understand what is happening in the Middle East today.
The Arab world is experiencing a revolution called for by Barack Obama himself.
Is this a bad thing? Maybe not. The brutal dictators insatalled by the U.S. have not been moral or good for humankind.
We must deal with whatever emerges head on.
But, don't forget this speech, it was groundbreaking, World changing, and in my humble opinion, vastly underestimates the influence of extremists in the Arab world.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Rational Market?
So, the turmoil in Egypt is the latest reason to buy stocks? No, wait, it's inflation. High oil prices and inflation will be good for the economy.
How about this one: Construction spending fell to its lowest level since 2000. Ok, I'll give you ISM a bit above consensus expectations, 60.8 vs 58, but don't you think inflation has anything to do with that?
I love how the American Liberal press is "excited" about the events in the Middle East. Now, I'll give you that we should never have supported evil dictators over there, but do we really understand what may replace them?
Oh, the fact that the King of Jordan appointed a new Prime Minister and Parliment is no big deal, hardly worth mentioning.
Anyway, apparently Wall Street has decided that they will buy stocks no matter what, because that is their job. And, what the hell? They can borrow at nearly 0% and speculate all they want with no consequences whatsoever. If they are right, they get rich. If they are wrong, they get saved and stay rich. Incentives are a powerful thing, but eventually, profits will be squeezed
by low aggregate demand and commodity price inflation.
It is almost impossible to know when this reality will become apparent, but it will, and you won't want to be long when it does.
How about this one: Construction spending fell to its lowest level since 2000. Ok, I'll give you ISM a bit above consensus expectations, 60.8 vs 58, but don't you think inflation has anything to do with that?
I love how the American Liberal press is "excited" about the events in the Middle East. Now, I'll give you that we should never have supported evil dictators over there, but do we really understand what may replace them?
Oh, the fact that the King of Jordan appointed a new Prime Minister and Parliment is no big deal, hardly worth mentioning.
Anyway, apparently Wall Street has decided that they will buy stocks no matter what, because that is their job. And, what the hell? They can borrow at nearly 0% and speculate all they want with no consequences whatsoever. If they are right, they get rich. If they are wrong, they get saved and stay rich. Incentives are a powerful thing, but eventually, profits will be squeezed
by low aggregate demand and commodity price inflation.
It is almost impossible to know when this reality will become apparent, but it will, and you won't want to be long when it does.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
How Dare We?
How dare we "support" and "consort" with a Kingdom who believes such things...
http://www.mideastinfo.com/documents/Saudi_Arabia_Basic_Law.htm
http://www.mideastinfo.com/documents/Saudi_Arabia_Basic_Law.htm
Explaining Mid-East Revolts, In Child's Terms
It has taken a few days for me to figure out exactly what is going on the the Mid-East, and frankly, I really still don't understand all the implications. However, when my daughter asked me what was going on in Egypt on TV I had to try to come up with an explanation.
In adult language:
In order to protect Israel, and by extension, ourselves, we have compromised our values (human rights and freedom) again and again in the Middle East.
It seems to avoid radical Islamic Theocracies from controlling the region, we have supported and encouraged secular military dictatorships to keep the region "stable".
But it is much more fun to use an analogy even kids could understand:
It's as if our buddy, Israel, was being bullied on the playground, by a big mean bully (Islamic Extremists). We didn't want to get our hands dirty by beating up the bully (our we might lose our precious oil), so we brought in our redneck cousin (secular military dictatorships). The cousin and the bully fought at every recess, allowing our buddy and ourselves to go about our business.
This arrangement worked for a while, but eventually, the other kids on the playground cried out that they didn't like our redneck cousin anymore. They decided to throw him off of the playground, by force if necessary.
We tried to stop them by saying, "Hey guys, we know our redneck cousin has been terrorizing you, but we have to keep him here, or the big mean bully will start picking on us again!"
But they had gotten sick of the redneck cousins abuse, "Better you than us, and who are you to tell us what to do anyway?", they said.
And really, who are we?
We are the biggest guy on the playground called the World. We believe in human rights, a Democratic Republic, the inherent equality of human beings, a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We believe in freedom of and from religion.
We cannot impose these beliefs on the rest of the world. However, if we think they are true, eventually they will triumph.
We have got to let well enough alone here. Let the Egyptian people decide for themselves. If the extremists prevail, the sane, rational, peace loving Egyptians will eventually get sick of them too, and rise up against them.
If we are attacked, we have the right to Self-Defense. We already retialiated against the perpetrators of 9/11. We must put that behind us and move forward.
We cannot let our fear allow us to continually compromise our values. Nor can we afford to police the entire Mid-East. We cannot support the Mubarak regime. We must withdraw our support for it. Mubarak will fall either way. We cannot, should not, and will not, interfere anymore.
We must wait, and watch, and only help when asked.
And someday, if the big mean bully starts acting up again, we are going to have to face him head on, and win the fight once and for all.
In adult language:
In order to protect Israel, and by extension, ourselves, we have compromised our values (human rights and freedom) again and again in the Middle East.
It seems to avoid radical Islamic Theocracies from controlling the region, we have supported and encouraged secular military dictatorships to keep the region "stable".
But it is much more fun to use an analogy even kids could understand:
It's as if our buddy, Israel, was being bullied on the playground, by a big mean bully (Islamic Extremists). We didn't want to get our hands dirty by beating up the bully (our we might lose our precious oil), so we brought in our redneck cousin (secular military dictatorships). The cousin and the bully fought at every recess, allowing our buddy and ourselves to go about our business.
This arrangement worked for a while, but eventually, the other kids on the playground cried out that they didn't like our redneck cousin anymore. They decided to throw him off of the playground, by force if necessary.
We tried to stop them by saying, "Hey guys, we know our redneck cousin has been terrorizing you, but we have to keep him here, or the big mean bully will start picking on us again!"
But they had gotten sick of the redneck cousins abuse, "Better you than us, and who are you to tell us what to do anyway?", they said.
And really, who are we?
We are the biggest guy on the playground called the World. We believe in human rights, a Democratic Republic, the inherent equality of human beings, a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We believe in freedom of and from religion.
We cannot impose these beliefs on the rest of the world. However, if we think they are true, eventually they will triumph.
We have got to let well enough alone here. Let the Egyptian people decide for themselves. If the extremists prevail, the sane, rational, peace loving Egyptians will eventually get sick of them too, and rise up against them.
If we are attacked, we have the right to Self-Defense. We already retialiated against the perpetrators of 9/11. We must put that behind us and move forward.
We cannot let our fear allow us to continually compromise our values. Nor can we afford to police the entire Mid-East. We cannot support the Mubarak regime. We must withdraw our support for it. Mubarak will fall either way. We cannot, should not, and will not, interfere anymore.
We must wait, and watch, and only help when asked.
And someday, if the big mean bully starts acting up again, we are going to have to face him head on, and win the fight once and for all.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Saudi King Upset By Demonstrations
I guess I would be too, if I were him.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/29/egypt.middle.east.reaction/index.html?hpt=T2
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/29/egypt.middle.east.reaction/index.html?hpt=T2
Friday, January 28, 2011
Egyptian Revolt
The Obama administrations response to the turmoil in Egypt is nothing short of pathetic. When asked by a reporter if the Muslim Brotherhood is behind these revolts, the White House spokesman said he didn't know and would have to "get some guidance" from someone on that.
What? So our Government has no idea what the hell is going on in the Middle East as it erupts into violence? We have no idea if this is an Islamist revolt backed by the Muslim Brotherhood or not?
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/28/egypt.muslim.brotherhood/index.html?hpt=T2
I found an interesting article at:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-cleric-mideast-unrest-replay-of-our-1979-islamic-revolution-1.339796
The line that jumped out at me was where the Cleric ends his statement with something about the direction the Middle East is headed; "...Islamic rulership and a democracy based on religion." Scary. Wasn't Hitler elected democratically? (Turns out he really wasn't, but did win some 37% of the vote in one election.) He convinced the winner to hand power over to him in a "crisis" and never gave it back.
Perhaps this is what we get for supporting "puppet" regimes all over the world and allowing our Federal Reserve Bank to export inflation.
Great job, guys, yeah...bang up work.
On the other hand, maybe we shouldn't be saying much. Perhaps this revolt truly reflects a deep desire for freedom and democracy in the Middle East. The question is, what will these democracies look like? What will their values be? They say they want to be free, but free to do what? We shall see.
What? So our Government has no idea what the hell is going on in the Middle East as it erupts into violence? We have no idea if this is an Islamist revolt backed by the Muslim Brotherhood or not?
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/28/egypt.muslim.brotherhood/index.html?hpt=T2
I found an interesting article at:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-cleric-mideast-unrest-replay-of-our-1979-islamic-revolution-1.339796
The line that jumped out at me was where the Cleric ends his statement with something about the direction the Middle East is headed; "...Islamic rulership and a democracy based on religion." Scary. Wasn't Hitler elected democratically? (Turns out he really wasn't, but did win some 37% of the vote in one election.) He convinced the winner to hand power over to him in a "crisis" and never gave it back.
Perhaps this is what we get for supporting "puppet" regimes all over the world and allowing our Federal Reserve Bank to export inflation.
Great job, guys, yeah...bang up work.
On the other hand, maybe we shouldn't be saying much. Perhaps this revolt truly reflects a deep desire for freedom and democracy in the Middle East. The question is, what will these democracies look like? What will their values be? They say they want to be free, but free to do what? We shall see.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Middle East Revolts
Pay attention to this. It is going to shape global politics for the next 100 years.
What, is the driving force behind these protests? Freedom? I think not.
http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=2683604829542557528&postID=4692763464995406803
This is the beginning of an Islamist revolution in the Middle East. It is anti-American and a huge security threat to Israel.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28jazeera.html
What, is the driving force behind these protests? Freedom? I think not.
http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=2683604829542557528&postID=4692763464995406803
This is the beginning of an Islamist revolution in the Middle East. It is anti-American and a huge security threat to Israel.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28jazeera.html
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