Lacking Clarity

I seem to be afflicted with the worst kind of writers block.

My mind is jumping form one subject to another as fast as...well...too fast to come up with clever analogies.

Why? I do not know.

At times, I fell blessed to be able to think very clearly, and have a peace of mind that is so pervasive, nearly nothing can upset me.

This is not one of those times.

The solution, I think, is to accept it. Resistance only seems to make it worse.

So, I am going to go let my mind bounce around from economics, to spirituality, to philosophy, to my children, to the nature of the universe, to nature itself, and anywhere else it may go.

I am thankful that I can.

Have a good day!

Great Depression Pattern

Daryl Guppy is a technical analyst and a contributor to CNBC. I always read anything with his name attached to it, as his predictions are usually correct.

I saw a giant head and shoulders top forming in the US markets some time ago.

http://econmom.blogspot.com/2010/02/15-year-head-and-shoulders-top.html

Mr. Guppy sees it too:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38092759

Get out now.* We may see a summer bounce, but after that we are in BIG trouble...maybe sooner.

*As always, trade at your own risk and consult your own advisor. (Whether you listen to the moron or not is completely up to you.)

Clear Signal

Citigroup gave a clear signal today of where the market is headed:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38000498

My summer is going well, but I just haven't felt like writing much...so I apologize to any readers I have.

Parenting and trading are consuming just about all of my time and attention.

I will be starting my own Tax and Accounting business this January, so if you are a reader who knows me and live in the Mpls/St. Paul area, I would love referrals!

As Always, I Agree With Whitney

Meredith Whitney is not afraid to see things as they are. Understand, this is not about pessimism, it is about facts. It is about challenging the collective denial that is gripping our country, including the financial media.

Like Meredith, I am sill a bear, a stubborn one. Not because I want to be bearish...but because of all the reasons Whitney pointed out and many, many more. Illusions are just that...illusions. Eventually, they will be revealed for what they are. Then this country can begin to build an economy based on innovation and progress, not just debt and over consumption.

Boomers, Don't Be Fooled

Don't be fooled in to thinking things are going to go back to the way they were before the housing bubble burst. If you let your "financial advisor" fool you, you will lose more money.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37728387

What A Rally

Wow, I got killed today! What a bounce! Should have had a few longs as a hedge.

Now, I lost money on my short ETF's, but here is the really interesting thing to me: my September and January puts (short positions) were virtually unchanged.

This tells me this a a technical rally and that large investors are not selling their downside protection. The cost of insuring long positions through Fall 2010 and Winter 2011 remains high.

Fundamentals have not changed, in fact, the data was terrible today.

Staying short!

I Guess I Am A Perma Bear

But I won't be, after the Dow moves to 6500 or so (within the next 9 mos), I will be on a buying spree.

That said...this morning's bounce is surprising me. Just a reminder that stocks don't always trade on fundamentals.

The Best Buy news confirms the thesis that the consumer is pulling back again. Not necessarily because they want to, but because they have to.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/best-buy-shares-hit-on-firms-slow-profit-rise-2010-06-15

Should have seen that one coming. Anyway...still short...very bored...feeling bored, unenlightened and wishing the rain would stop.