I must share this with you all. My uncle sent it to me and I was deeply moved. Wow! Amazing!
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1785324681?bclid=1338935106&bctid=1913313052
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
China Stumbles
I have been very skeptical about China's booming economy for the last several years. I do not deny the fact that it was booming.
My contention was this: the rapid growth in China was driven mainly by exports to the Western world, which was is the middle of a massive debt bubble fueled by the government holding interest rates too low for too long. (essentially manipulating the price of money itself)
Therefore, when the housing bubble burst in the U.S., the entire economy would follow and the American consumer would virtually stop spending disposable income. This, in turn, would cause a depression in the Chinese economy.
I know this runs counter to the decoupling theory and the belief that Chinese growth will pull us out of this Great Recession.
Ideas do matter. You cannot build a stable, solid market economy based on
Communist ideals. China will enter a depression, unless we recover very quickly, and I just don't see that happening.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-sell-off-leads-asia-markets-lower-2009-07-29
If you are a brave trader short China and buy EEV. (at your own risk-as always!)
My contention was this: the rapid growth in China was driven mainly by exports to the Western world, which was is the middle of a massive debt bubble fueled by the government holding interest rates too low for too long. (essentially manipulating the price of money itself)
Therefore, when the housing bubble burst in the U.S., the entire economy would follow and the American consumer would virtually stop spending disposable income. This, in turn, would cause a depression in the Chinese economy.
I know this runs counter to the decoupling theory and the belief that Chinese growth will pull us out of this Great Recession.
Ideas do matter. You cannot build a stable, solid market economy based on
Communist ideals. China will enter a depression, unless we recover very quickly, and I just don't see that happening.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shanghai-sell-off-leads-asia-markets-lower-2009-07-29
If you are a brave trader short China and buy EEV. (at your own risk-as always!)
Friday, July 24, 2009
S & P Technical History
I really believe looking at historical charts is important. Please check out the first two on this site:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/
Now, what do you think of that double-top?
This is not the main reason, but only one of several that tell me the trend is still lower, perhaps much lower.
Headed to the in-laws in Hayward for the weekend!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/
Now, what do you think of that double-top?
This is not the main reason, but only one of several that tell me the trend is still lower, perhaps much lower.
Headed to the in-laws in Hayward for the weekend!
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Short Squeeze
Can you say "short squeeze"? I can. Ouch!
But the VIX is up with the rally. This tells me we might be in for a sharp reversal. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
I hate being wrong. Even in the short run. However, I still think this is a trading rally, not a sustainable one for the average investor to buy into.
But the VIX is up with the rally. This tells me we might be in for a sharp reversal. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
I hate being wrong. Even in the short run. However, I still think this is a trading rally, not a sustainable one for the average investor to buy into.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Saudi Torture
Are you kidding me? I think I am just going to quit going to CNN.com altogether. It is terrible. The Liberal bias is so obvious that it is getting embarrassing.
You know, you don't see many hard hitting CNN journalists doing stories about the rampant abuse and torture of women in their own homes in Saudi Arabia. Where are all the hard hitting in depth stories about the persecution of anyone who breaks Sharia law.
Oh, yes, I know. Every once and a while they will have a short blurb about a woman being arrested for meeting with her boyfriend in public. (Oh NO!)
But CNN's Nic Robertson has somehow found the time to do an entire story about how the Saudi's are torturing suspected Al-Qaeda militants whose aim is to overthrow the current regime.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/07/22/saudi.amnesty.clampdown/index.html
Are you really surprised Nic? Is this supposed to be interesting and new information?
Wahhabists can be ruthless. Reallllllllllllllyyyyyyyyy? What a surprise!
I guess we will let them do our dirty work for us. Imagine what would happen if Bin Laden achieved his aim and radicalized the Kingdom beyond where it is now? That's not disturbing at all.
I am only going to WSJ.com from now on. On second thought, what would I blog about then?
You know, you don't see many hard hitting CNN journalists doing stories about the rampant abuse and torture of women in their own homes in Saudi Arabia. Where are all the hard hitting in depth stories about the persecution of anyone who breaks Sharia law.
Oh, yes, I know. Every once and a while they will have a short blurb about a woman being arrested for meeting with her boyfriend in public. (Oh NO!)
But CNN's Nic Robertson has somehow found the time to do an entire story about how the Saudi's are torturing suspected Al-Qaeda militants whose aim is to overthrow the current regime.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/07/22/saudi.amnesty.clampdown/index.html
Are you really surprised Nic? Is this supposed to be interesting and new information?
Wahhabists can be ruthless. Reallllllllllllllyyyyyyyyy? What a surprise!
I guess we will let them do our dirty work for us. Imagine what would happen if Bin Laden achieved his aim and radicalized the Kingdom beyond where it is now? That's not disturbing at all.
I am only going to WSJ.com from now on. On second thought, what would I blog about then?
Tax Credit Will Backfire
When the government uses tax policy to influence decision making, it almost always ends up creating more problems than existed before its meddling.
The exception, in my opinion, is an equal reduction in tax rates across income groups. This returns things to the way they should have been in the first place. Thus, it is the elimination of a market distorting policy.
Tax credits, however, are different. Most of them, the $8000 first time home buyer credit included, are simply a government giveaway and represent a massive transfer of wealth from those who save, to those who over consume.
Many tax credits are designed to give the very poor a boost. I guess I have no moral problem with this, (except that I would rather give them the money myself), but it does create huge incentive problems.
Many working poor will make sure that their income does not rise above the "sweet spot" to qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit. They actually stand to make more money in the short run (in the form of government subsidy), than they would if they took on a second job or sought to increase their skill level and find a higher paying one.
The First Time Homebuyer Credit is no different. It gives people a short-term incentive to overpay for a house they may not really be able to afford. It allows them to bypass the 20% down rule.
Here is what going to happen: the mortgage industry, real estate speculators, realtors, and to some extent the banks will be enriched by this tax credit.
New homeowners, who were not really ready to buy, will be stuck with homes that will fall in value another 30-40%. Then, if the economy doesn't turn around they will lose their jobs. Then, we will have another wave of defaults.
Perhaps it will work out for some. I am sure many genuine savers have also been able to take advantage of the credit.
Unfortunately, the lasting effects to our economy will be negative.
The exception, in my opinion, is an equal reduction in tax rates across income groups. This returns things to the way they should have been in the first place. Thus, it is the elimination of a market distorting policy.
Tax credits, however, are different. Most of them, the $8000 first time home buyer credit included, are simply a government giveaway and represent a massive transfer of wealth from those who save, to those who over consume.
Many tax credits are designed to give the very poor a boost. I guess I have no moral problem with this, (except that I would rather give them the money myself), but it does create huge incentive problems.
Many working poor will make sure that their income does not rise above the "sweet spot" to qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit. They actually stand to make more money in the short run (in the form of government subsidy), than they would if they took on a second job or sought to increase their skill level and find a higher paying one.
The First Time Homebuyer Credit is no different. It gives people a short-term incentive to overpay for a house they may not really be able to afford. It allows them to bypass the 20% down rule.
Here is what going to happen: the mortgage industry, real estate speculators, realtors, and to some extent the banks will be enriched by this tax credit.
New homeowners, who were not really ready to buy, will be stuck with homes that will fall in value another 30-40%. Then, if the economy doesn't turn around they will lose their jobs. Then, we will have another wave of defaults.
Perhaps it will work out for some. I am sure many genuine savers have also been able to take advantage of the credit.
Unfortunately, the lasting effects to our economy will be negative.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Wealth & This World
What the hell is wrong with the logic of Socialists and Communists? ALOT.
I was at a friendly gathering this weekend and I had the honor of overhearing, and participating in a discussion about wealth.
Well, it went something like this:
The Socialist (perhaps they would even call themselves a Communist) says:
Not a direct quote - but close - "No one needs that much money. Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the like SHOULD give even more than they do to charity." The other socialist says, "Yeah! You are right, no one should have that much money. And you know, WE give SO MUCH MORE as a percentage of our wealth than they do."
Now these are two human being that I love with all my soul. But to their logic I must say, with all due respect: WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP.
All I had to say was: "Well, I suppose one can't give what one doesn't have."
THE END
I was at a friendly gathering this weekend and I had the honor of overhearing, and participating in a discussion about wealth.
Well, it went something like this:
The Socialist (perhaps they would even call themselves a Communist) says:
Not a direct quote - but close - "No one needs that much money. Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the like SHOULD give even more than they do to charity." The other socialist says, "Yeah! You are right, no one should have that much money. And you know, WE give SO MUCH MORE as a percentage of our wealth than they do."
Now these are two human being that I love with all my soul. But to their logic I must say, with all due respect: WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP.
All I had to say was: "Well, I suppose one can't give what one doesn't have."
THE END
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